Quote:
Originally Posted by tonybelding
Not true. My link is to a green transportation blog which reported the release of a study from the DOE. It was also reported by other outlets; that was just a convenient one for me to find.
I don't see a problem with that. We're talking about tens of millions of electric vehicles, just in that region alone. Today there are more like dozens in use (not counting NEVs). That's a huge opportunity to displace petroleum fuel
Why is this is a problem? Even in those areas -- such as in the West -- where they found off-peak power is tight, we're still talking about a gradual influx of electric vehicles over a period of years. It's going to be hundreds at first, not millions suddenly appearing overnight. At some point they'll have to bring more generation online, okay.
No, it doesn't say anything remotely like that. The fact that you would somehow spin that out of this report just shows that you have some kind of axe to grind against electric cars.
What the study shows is that the USA has significant off-peak capacity which could be used to power a large number of electric vehicles -- apparently tens of millions. In doing so, it directly contradicts that you wrote earlier, when you implied that off-peak capacity is some kind of a myth, that it's somehow not available for this purpose.
Some regions have more off-peak capacity than others. I get that. That is not a valid argument against starting to build some electric vehicles today.
The real "myth" is that all of our gasoline cars overnight with electric cars will overwhelm the grid. (And to be fair, you may not have written exactly that -- but others have, it's how this off-peak power debate usually arises.) But so what? It will take decades to turn over the automotive fleet. It took 10 years for Toyota to sell their first million Priuses. By 2012 they expect to be selling a million per year. It's a ramp-up curve, and plug-in vehicles should follow a similar trajectory.
The argument, then, is that we can begin that process today without immediately over-stressing the power grid. There is some buffer of off-peak capacity available to begin with, and later there will be time to add more capacity before it's needed.
Incidentally, a fair amount of that off-peak power is currently being "used", if that's the right word, to light up the night sky with inefficient and poorly designed (unshielded) street lights and security lights. There's another opportunity to reduce waste and redirect it to something beneficial.
|
There are two main issues here: the grid generation issue and the solar power issue. As I said, I agree that there is something to using whatever off peak power we have to charge EV's. Nothing wrong with that. Again the fundamental problem is doing this in a manner that the average person can afford. The only way to do this currently is to use that off peak power to manufacture synthetic fuels that go in our vehicles as-is or with as little modification possible (e.g. natural gas vehicle conversions.) Also keep in mind that use of coal/natural gas to power PHEV's does not change the our enivronmental situation in any way since we will still be polluting.
Secondly the solar issue which is where all the hippie science and speculation comes in. As rich and I have mentioned numerous times there is no easy way to deliver solar power economically (e.g. competitive with coal/natural gas) nor to do so reliably. Yes you can put a solar array on your house and generate power during the day when its needed but the whole idea of local solar is that the grid is still used to provide the stability to the system. What we are really talking about is a lifestyle change that we are advocating: have the foresight to save the money up to purchase a solar array and converter and batteries now so that we save on the backend. then buy an EV now at a premium so that we can save on fueling costs on the backend as well. Thats fine I guess if the numbers work (im still not 100% that they do but lets assume that they work out); the problem is that (again) the average american is having trouble paying *this* month's electric bill and *this* month's car payment so how are they going to buy an expensive EV and solar setup?
Again, assuming the logistics can be worked out at some point and we can reliably do solar at home and charge your vehicle, we need to be able to do this cheap, dirt cheap so that the prospect of using oil and then finally even coal and natural gas become the expensive and undesirable route. One really promising technology is thin film solar which if it eventually fufills its promise of ten cents/sq ft would be a highly disruptive change in the way we generate power. At that price, even poor people can just roll the stuff out on their roofs and start generating power very cheaply. Again you still have to figure out how to build a cheap car that can use that electricity but at least we would be 1 step in the right direction.