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There is no way in hell that Obama would ever reinstate the draft. First off, there would have to be a severe need, as in a major war that our volunteer military could not handle. Like going to war with Russia or China or something of that scale.
But, Obama is so conflict-averse that it will never come to that. I can't imagine him committing our troops to war under any circumstances. If he wants to be re-elected in four years (which all presidents do), then he can't afford to piss off the Code-Pinkers and Moveon.org and Daily Kos types that make up his base. I can't think of anything that would piss off those people more than starting up another draft.
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