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if extended warraties and insurance were a great deal for everyone, then they'd go out of business immediately, same way as for every winner in vegas, there are something like 1,000,000 losers.
like all gambling its a factor of luck against improbable fixed odds, you might put the insurance money in a high yield account or attempt on the stock market and luck out, or put it all into blackjack, then it'd pay for any repairs.
calculate the average costs of repairs over the lifetime of a comparable vehicle, number of sales/owners, factor in that some won't be settled or used, and figure out a price, if its above a certain watermark, they'll offer, if not they won't, if previous data changes out of favour they'll cancel it.
its a major money maker for businesses, thats why every electronic store you go to wants you to buy a 'performance guarantee or extended warranty', they know the amount you pay and the time it'll take to break on average is a win win situation for you.
the fact that they gain more than their customers generally without question is why its a bad deal.
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