Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisB
I am quite familiar with Moore's law. So far solar power technology has not come anywhere near the progression of the transistor. And, I don't expect that it ever will. I also don't expect that its technological progression will taper off. The doubling point was regarding the roll-out of solar power. When you start from near zero and start rolling it out, it happens where it is cheap and easy. The rate of adoption is high. When it gets to the more difficult to roll out areas (i.e. costly and/or impractical), it does not happen as fast and the adoption rate will slow down.
When the technology gets to the point where panels small enough to fit on a car will power it without needing a recharge, then you've got something that will completely change private transportation. In the meantime, I think plug-in hybrids will be the practical alternative to pure IC propulsion. Pure electrics will make some inroads as commuter vehicles, but IMHO, that will be it for the foreseeable future.
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lets step back a minute, are you talking about adoption growth or efficiency growth? I see solar as a small part of the solution. so I don't think 100% adoption is realistic, maybe 25-50% is a good goal. As far as efficiency, I know an old guy in the Sunset district of SF that was one of the early adopters of photovoltaic power. He pays like $30 a year for electricity with his 10yr old array, in an area of SF known for fog and overcast weather. Its not even that big of an array. Do I think its realistic to have solar cells that powers cars without batteries? Absolutely not, but inexpensive solar panels that charges plug-in hybrids are a realistic goal.