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#61 (permalink) | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: New Albany, Ohio, USA
Posts: 584
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Reliability? Do you mean what it used to be or the modern, lean-company style reliability? Our solar array has been in service for one year with zero failures. For the first decade we owned the house, we never had a power failure and rarely even took hits that would cause the microwave clock to reset. This last decade, we take hours-long failures every year and monthly hits (one of my computer UPS has died along the way). Here in the midwest we are still having glitches and drops a week after the lights went back on. One user is not statistically significant, I know, but I don't have access to AEP's uptime numbers. The North American power network does not appear to have the same dedication to uptime that the phone network is known for. The North American phone network went 5 nines reliable back in the seventies, though I don't know if that is still the case. |
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#62 (permalink) | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: California
Posts: 156
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But accepting the press release at face, it contains two statements that you might want to consider more carefully. The first is this statement: "...Researchers found that in the Midwest and East, there is sufficient off-peak generation, transmission and distribution capacity to provide for all of today’s vehicles if they ran on batteries..." Unfortunately, electric cars in the West cannot be charged using power from the Midwest and East. And I think that if you research the matter you'll also find that cars in the Midwest cannot be charged using power from the East, and vice-versa. The second statement is the following. "...The study also looked at the impact on the environment of an all-out move to PHEVs. The added electricity would come from a combination of coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants..." Unstated is the unavoidable balance of the conclusion that, if the currently available off-peak Midwest and East capacity were absorbed today to charge batteries to run all existing vehicles, then any future off-peak load growth of any kind, including "an all-out move to PHEVs", would force the addition of coal and natural gas plants. So, put in practical context, your press release says, in effect, that if ohm's law were suspended (an impossibility), and it is assumed that there will be no future off-peak load growth (a most unlikely future), then there is enough off-peak capacity in the Midwest and East to charge all of today's vehicles if they ran on batteries. |
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#63 (permalink) | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: California
Posts: 156
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And distributed solar is fine. The tradeoff is that the user is disrupted and isolated in the event of any failure (and failures are a certainty), until the local facility is repaired. |
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#64 (permalink) | ||||
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Hamilton, Texas
Posts: 96
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What the study shows is that the USA has significant off-peak capacity which could be used to power a large number of electric vehicles -- apparently tens of millions. In doing so, it directly contradicts that you wrote earlier, when you implied that off-peak capacity is some kind of a myth, that it's somehow not available for this purpose. Some regions have more off-peak capacity than others. I get that. That is not a valid argument against starting to build some electric vehicles today. The real "myth" is that all of our gasoline cars overnight with electric cars will overwhelm the grid. (And to be fair, you may not have written exactly that -- but others have, it's how this off-peak power debate usually arises.) But so what? It will take decades to turn over the automotive fleet. It took 10 years for Toyota to sell their first million Priuses. By 2012 they expect to be selling a million per year. It's a ramp-up curve, and plug-in vehicles should follow a similar trajectory. The argument, then, is that we can begin that process today without immediately over-stressing the power grid. There is some buffer of off-peak capacity available to begin with, and later there will be time to add more capacity before it's needed. Incidentally, a fair amount of that off-peak power is currently being "used", if that's the right word, to light up the night sky with inefficient and poorly designed (unshielded) street lights and security lights. There's another opportunity to reduce waste and redirect it to something beneficial. Last edited by tonybelding : 09-25-2008 at 05:09 AM. |
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#65 (permalink) | |
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the devil's advocate...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 696
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you want to quote the actual study... here is the link: http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pd...s_combined.pdf now here is the issue. There is certainly additional capacity available at night for charging ev's, perhaps quite alot. I dont think that anyone is arguing that and it is certainly not a bad idea for the power companies to leverage their off peak availability; any generators that are spun down at night would certainly be a more effective use of capital equipment if running and making them money (and us electricity). There are however a few things to consider. First, the study talks about PHEV's specifically, not pure electric vehicles so the comparison to vehicles like the whitestar or roadster are not an apples to apples comparison. Secondly, the study specifically talks about how the typical cost difference between a PHEV and normal vehicle is about 10K more and that the time to recoup this additional outset is 5-8 years which is not cost effective. Finally, concerning the whitestar while doing the research for this post I noticed that the whitestar is no longer going to be the accessible vehicle with a cost of $30K. The price is now at $60K which again puts this vehicle out of contention for a huge chunk of the populous. Again, there is nothing wrong with trading our usage of imported oil for usage of domestic coal or natural gas... It will certainly help stabilize us and keep money in the country instead. The only issue is that this has to be done in a way that we can make this option available to the average car buyer (e.g. family that buys a $30K toyota or hyundai) and more importantly to the below average buyer (the people who buy up the used toyotas and hyundai's at $8-15K and cant afford to replace a battery pack for 10 G's or even 5). If we take the tesla solutions (e.g. roadster and whitestar) at face value we have an electric solution that maybe 5% of the country can afford... |
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#66 (permalink) | |
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the devil's advocate...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 696
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There are two main issues here: the grid generation issue and the solar power issue. As I said, I agree that there is something to using whatever off peak power we have to charge EV's. Nothing wrong with that. Again the fundamental problem is doing this in a manner that the average person can afford. The only way to do this currently is to use that off peak power to manufacture synthetic fuels that go in our vehicles as-is or with as little modification possible (e.g. natural gas vehicle conversions.) Also keep in mind that use of coal/natural gas to power PHEV's does not change the our enivronmental situation in any way since we will still be polluting. Secondly the solar issue which is where all the hippie science and speculation comes in. As rich and I have mentioned numerous times there is no easy way to deliver solar power economically (e.g. competitive with coal/natural gas) nor to do so reliably. Yes you can put a solar array on your house and generate power during the day when its needed but the whole idea of local solar is that the grid is still used to provide the stability to the system. What we are really talking about is a lifestyle change that we are advocating: have the foresight to save the money up to purchase a solar array and converter and batteries now so that we save on the backend. then buy an EV now at a premium so that we can save on fueling costs on the backend as well. Thats fine I guess if the numbers work (im still not 100% that they do but lets assume that they work out); the problem is that (again) the average american is having trouble paying *this* month's electric bill and *this* month's car payment so how are they going to buy an expensive EV and solar setup? Again, assuming the logistics can be worked out at some point and we can reliably do solar at home and charge your vehicle, we need to be able to do this cheap, dirt cheap so that the prospect of using oil and then finally even coal and natural gas become the expensive and undesirable route. One really promising technology is thin film solar which if it eventually fufills its promise of ten cents/sq ft would be a highly disruptive change in the way we generate power. At that price, even poor people can just roll the stuff out on their roofs and start generating power very cheaply. Again you still have to figure out how to build a cheap car that can use that electricity but at least we would be 1 step in the right direction. |
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#67 (permalink) | |||
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: New Albany, Ohio, USA
Posts: 584
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We all pay for catalytic converters, airbags, and ABS even though all the car companies said they would price cars out of everyone's reach. Solar isn't *that* cheap, yet. Quote:
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#68 (permalink) | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: California
Posts: 156
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What's giving you trouble is the fact that, barring error, all utility capacity was built to serve forecast load. The subtlety is that capacity additions require a long time to plan and build, and necessarily come on line in large block increments (i.e., say a 2,000 megawatt baseload plant), whereas load growth occurs gradually in small bits, as consumers add appliances one at a time.
So if a utility always maintains at least its planning reserve margin for reliability, it will inevitably experience significant stretches of time where, arithmetically, it appears to have more capacity than needed while load growth catches up to large increment capacity additions. And that capacity can reasonably be used to serve temporary loads. But that capacity cannot suddenly be declared "excess" in a snapshot analysis and earmarked for new permanent loads that were not in the forecast, without ultimately leaving the utility short of capacity to serve all anticipated loads. There is no doubt that, technically at least, sufficient capacity can be timely added to the US utility systems to charge vehicle batteries in the future. The problem is to integrate those vehicles into utility load forecasts, and then plan, finance, and build the needed additions. And the problem with that comes down to building sufficient confidence that future electric vehicle chargers will actually be willing to pay the cost of those addititons in charging prices - they will not be cheap - and that the load will actually materialize to justify the capacity additions. Quote:
Last edited by Rich H : 09-26-2008 at 09:08 PM. |
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#69 (permalink) | |
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the devil's advocate...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 696
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#70 (permalink) | |
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the devil's advocate...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 696
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Quote:
So now the issue is how do we really start using our renewable options and the answer in 'in the biggest way possible'. So there is nothing wrong with everyone putting thin film solar on their houses or indeed wherever you can put the stuff but the truth of the matter is that we need to go *big* with these ideas so that we can benefit from economies of scale. One good way to do this is to build large scale solar thermal plants and colocate them next to conventional generating plants wherever possible. The idea is that since conventional plants like coal all use steam turbines its really just a matter of adding an additional steam loop and then using the solar during the day to run the existing turbines and switching to coal at night. honestly the biggest issue and the one we really havent come up with a good answer is how to store up enough solar energy during the day to then use it for our nighttime generation needs. We need to put alot of effort into figuring out what to do about that issue (e.g. ideas like pumping water to a high resevior during the day and then using it to run hydroelectric at night) Thats the energy part of the problem. then we still have to figure out what to do about our transportation issues (e.g. how to leverage all the extra solar generated power we will one day have and use it to power that 33 mile/day average trip we all make). I just dont see billions of little li-on batteries as being a practical answer. |
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#71 (permalink) | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: California
Posts: 156
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"...A new study for the US Department of Energy finds that off-peak electricity production and transmission capacity could power 84% of the country’s 220 million vehicles if they were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles..." But the actual study by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, at http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pd...s_combined.pdf, said: "...If charging periods are to be constrained to a 12-hour period starting at 6 pm and ending at 6 am, the technical potential would be reduced to 43% of the LDV fleet..." Funny how the 43% from 6 pm to 6 am stated in the study morphed into 84% off-peak in the press release. Its also worth noting that the real off-peak period is typically shorter than 12 hours. The real study also said: "...Providing 73% of the daily energy requirements of the U.S. LDV fleet with electricity would add approximately 910 billion kWh, an increase of about 24% of the total U.S. annual generation, in 2002 [EIA, 2006b]. Without further infrastructure investments, the current electric power system would be heavily loaded for most hours of all days. It is questionable whether today’s electricity infrastructure and capacity mix will be able to support this level of loading on a sustained basis. Planned outages for plant maintenance would likely need to occur more frequently, making it more difficult to schedule maintenance. Furthermore, the overall system reliability could be reduced in this high-use scenario as less reserve capacity is available to the system operators for managing system emergencies..." (emphasis added) Kind of amazing how the study's questioning whether today's electricity infrastructure can support sustained vehicle charging was transformed in the press release to the certainty that existing capacity could power 84% of vehicles. And the real study further said: "...While we rationalized that PHEV charging could be done without setting new system peaks and causing new transmission congestions, it represents a significant shift from a power system with peaks and valleys to one that is constantly loaded. While the bulk power system is designed to operate reliably at these levels during peak periods, sustained operation at these levels may reveal new constraints. For example, there may be intra-regional transmission constraints that come into place when transmission lines are heavily loaded for extended periods. Specific and detailed regional studies would reveal these delivery constraints. Similarly, the distribution system may impose some additional constraints on the delivery limits to off-peak PHEV charging..." (emphasis added) So the real study expects transmission and distribution constraints to limit charging capability, but the press release says not so. Indeed. Who should one believe? |
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#73 (permalink) |
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Moderator
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I bought a new Telsa - first look:
I bought a new - actually my wife bought it for me.
It's "candy apple red", with a brown interior. Here's a couple of photos:
__________________
Tim Mullen --- There is no such thing as Touring suspension or Touring wheels.I love being married. It's so great to find that one person that you want to annoy for the rest of your life. - Rita Rudner Chantilly, VA http://members.cox.net/elans4/ 05 Lotus Elise - Chrome Orange - No Touring - No LSS - No Hardtop - Lotus Driving Lights - Lotus "Chin Guards" - plain and simple. 94 Miata R Package - Black 72 Lotus Elan Sprint - Colorado Orange/Cirrus White |
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#74 (permalink) |
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Moderator
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I also bought a couple of Exiges:
__________________
Tim Mullen --- There is no such thing as Touring suspension or Touring wheels.I love being married. It's so great to find that one person that you want to annoy for the rest of your life. - Rita Rudner Chantilly, VA http://members.cox.net/elans4/ 05 Lotus Elise - Chrome Orange - No Touring - No LSS - No Hardtop - Lotus Driving Lights - Lotus "Chin Guards" - plain and simple. 94 Miata R Package - Black 72 Lotus Elan Sprint - Colorado Orange/Cirrus White |
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#75 (permalink) | |
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Born again Track Junkie
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Swiss Banking Institute, Zurich, CH
Posts: 1,485
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XXX, thanks. That was a good laugh. Still smiling.
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Take my track day survey: here You should enjoy it. 10 questions. Now take survey #2 here Mods: TurboXS Intake, Ultra Disc Rotors, Adare Motorsports Racing Pads. http://www.combatintelligence.org/ |
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#76 (permalink) | |
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Habitual User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 226
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Jim
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2006 Lotus Elise--Starlight Black (Sport, Touring) | 2007 Birel M32 Parilla Leopard 125cc TaG Kart |Bowman Race Kart (Rented) | Chicago Racers |
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#77 (permalink) | |
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the devil's advocate...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 696
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Quote:
nah, i wasnt there that night.. i wonder who has that tesla and where they live as i have yet to see one driving around in chicago. I would expect that the car is going to be impressive. The elise has never been particularly good in the fit and finish area but then again that wasnt the idea.. With tesla, musk said straight away that he believed that the car wouldnt sell unless they made it more luxurious. It is going to be interesting to see what happens in the next year as the company progresses. I have heard that musk is spending all his time with spacex which unlike tesla has been a prodigious success, particularly with the latest launch achieving orbit. I would venture a guess that we might see musk start to distance himself from the company in the coming months to forge full speed ahead with spacex. |
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