2006 Auto Industry Predictions

[wallabyguy]

Everybody look into your crystal balls and guess what will be happening in the auto industry in 2006. Here are some of my predictions:

1) GM will declare bankruptcy and sell a minority stake to Toyota. The current president will be ousted and Lutz will retire or disappear into a less public roll. The Camaro will end up being a "too late" shot against Mustang and will take too long to get to market.

2) Lotus will limp through the year breaking about even.

3) Ford will see sales growth from it's new crossover vehicles and Fusion

4) Chrysler will sign the deal to make the next VW minivan for NA but will otherwise have a quiet year. The Challenger will be a hit.

5) VW will acquire Proton manufacturing assets if not partial control of the company. This will allow for cheaper production of vehicles for the Asian market with the recently passed free trade agreement.

6) Honda will introduce a new CRX

7) Audi's R9 (Le Mans) will sell out and out pace the Porsche 911.

8) Austin Healey will return and announce production for 2008

9) TVR will announce the official re-entry into the US

10) Hyundai will announce a Luxury division.

[ivan1]

I like number 9

[SweetDaddyD]

Boy Ford is really hinging alot on that Fusion, eh? Like all of a sudden they just noticed the jelly bean Taurus has been a big turd, and they havn't had a good fit for that segment since the early 90's. So what is going to replace the Mercury Mistake? (I'm betting a Fusion with a circle in the grill rather than an oval) Or do you think they will just shut Mercury down this year?

[Gojira]

GM will stop making cars & concentrate on Financing
The manufacturing division will be sold off
Or, they will declare bankruptcy & look to the U.S. Gov to bail them out

Mercury will be discontinued as a brand

[SweetDaddyD]

I think we will see a trend towards the American manufactures making a strong case to wipe out all the old timers pensions. Once the precedence is set, all the others will follow. It happened in the Steel mills with my Grandpa. And that is one huge monkey they are going to be looking to unload as well.

[Genjuro]

They should send Mercury to the planet with the same name, where it can melt down into molten pools of metal and ash.

[wallabyguy]

I'm guessing that Mercury will stick around because dealers need the cars for volume to balance Lincoln (who appears to be getting ready to move up market again). I think the Mercury Messenger (or something like it) will make it into production. There is a Ford Concept at NAIAS this year which is a coupe and, although badged a Ford, has styling cues from the Messenger. It's too radical for production but it may be a direction. Mercury should be selling European Fords here like the Ka and new Mondeo. They should be going head to head against VW while leaving Ford to take on the domestics.

There is a nice Lincoln concept vehicle based on the Five Hundred/ Volvo platform slated for NAIAS. It isn't radical but does have some nice touches and is obviously ready for production (probably replacing the LS).

Ford is reorganizing to be a lower volume manufacturer with more flexible platforms and niche products. This is why they'll survive. They have design to road time down to 28 months. They can beat Chrysler and GM to market. Lead time is going to hurt the Challanger and kill the new Camaro. By the time they get to market, Ford will have already updated the Mustang to match/ beat them. Like some other cars we all know (hint, hint), GM and Chrysler will see high demand at first but that will quickly fade after the "must havers" get their cars and by years 2, they'll be sitting on dealer lots.

[wallabyguy]

BTW, Slightly longer term prediction.......

Geely and more so Chery will storm the market by decades end. The first cars will be terrible but by the introduction of the second generation models, they will be market worthy. They will grab the low end of the market which has few entries as interest rates have stayed low allowing people to afford more expensive cars. As interest rates rise, people will be forced into cheaper cars and the Chinese will have the market cornered.

Hyundai will become the worlds 3rd largest manufacturer by 2010.

[charliex]

Lada will return strong my brothers and crush the infidel americans!

[sonza68]

Originally Posted by SweetDaddyD

Boy Ford is really hinging alot on that Fusion, eh? Like all of a sudden they just noticed the jelly bean Taurus has been a big turd, and they havn't had a good fit for that segment since the early 90's. So what is going to replace the Mercury Mistake? (I'm betting a Fusion with a circle in the grill rather than an oval) Or do you think they will just shut Mercury down this year?

Mercury gets the Milan an Lincoln gets the Zephyr. Both are reworked versions of the Fusion/6.

[Gojira]

Does anyone have pics of the proposed new Camaro?

[wallabyguy]

Originally Posted by Gojira

Does anyone have pics of the proposed new Camaro?

Nothing has been released yet. Next week.

[steuspeed]

Originally Posted by charliex

Lada will return strong my brothers and crush the infidel americans!

Secret weapon Lotus Lada

http://paultan.org/wp-content/topgear_lotuslada.wmv

[wallabyguy]

Originally Posted by steuspeed

Secret weapon Lotus Lada

http://paultan.org/wp-content/topgear_lotuslada.wmv

Brilliant!

[YELOROCKET1]

IF HYUNDAI MAKES A LUXURY CAR, I'LL EAT MY SHOE!! WHAT WOULD THEY CALL IT?? MAYBE "EVERYOTHER-DAI" BECAUSE THATS WHEN THEY PREDICT IT WOULD RUN, ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY!!

[andykeck]

Originally Posted by YELOROCKET1

IF HYUNDAI MAKES A LUXURY CAR, I'LL EAT MY SHOE!! WHAT WOULD THEY CALL IT?? MAYBE "EVERYOTHER-DAI" BECAUSE THATS WHEN THEY PREDICT IT WOULD RUN, ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY!!

I suspect there's a whole lot of guys that no longer work for the Big 3 that used to say that about the Japanese makers. Get ready to start chewing...

The automaker (Hyundai) shocked the auto industry by scoring a virtual dead-heat with quality leaders Honda and Toyota, tying Honda with 102 problems per 100 vehicles and just one point behind Toyota.(Related story: Hyundai improves in quality survey)

[wallabyguy]

Originally Posted by YELOROCKET1

IF HYUNDAI MAKES A LUXURY CAR, I'LL EAT MY SHOE!! WHAT WOULD THEY CALL IT?? MAYBE "EVERYOTHER-DAI" BECAUSE THATS WHEN THEY PREDICT IT WOULD RUN, ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY!!

I get to start the first fight of the thread. Hyundai has come a long long way since 1986. The new Sonota is as good as the Toyota Camary. Their quality is even rivaling Toyota. They out rank both BMW and Mercedes in the JD Power Associates rankings. The Tucson outranked the Rav 4 in JD Power ratings. Their packaging (features) is among the best in the industry. Do I own one, no. Mostly because they do not offer product in the segments in which I require vehicles. But I have recommended them to people in recent years and never heard anything but praise. I will admit their early cars were crap.

[chotto]

Originally Posted by YELOROCKET1

IF HYUNDAI MAKES A LUXURY CAR, I'LL EAT MY SHOE!! WHAT WOULD THEY CALL IT?? MAYBE "EVERYOTHER-DAI" BECAUSE THATS WHEN THEY PREDICT IT WOULD RUN, ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY!!

You really need to look at the quality reports about Hyundai, you would be surprised. I think that this is the attitude that the North American automakers have had for far too long. Deming sure comes to mind.

What do you prefer, Nike or Reebok?

[m3m750]

Remember, Honda sucked in the beginning too, little things like the cars already being rusty by the time they got off the boat.

[JnC]

Hey Robert,

Financially, I think VW is having problems in the US by overpricing itself out of it's traditional market. If this continues, I don't see them to have the cash to play with Proton.

They've desparately been trying to go "upscale" with dismal results. Witness the Toureg and Phaeton.

I'm not enamoured with the prospects of trying to sell Jettas that cost well north of $20k. Previous VW owners are weary of the poor and expensive service record. Now the electronics on the new cars have 5x the number of systems tied into the CANBUS... it's getting harder and harder to maintain these cars without going to the dealer. New owners are going to be tempted by an Accord/Camry/Sonata instead. I'm not sure who they're marketing this car to.

Personally I'd like to see a VW Polo over here with both the TDI and twincharger FSI engines.

Cheers,
JnC (00 Golf TDI)