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Old 11-12-2012, 02:29 PM   #61 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by manshoon11 View Post
The depth and speed in which a collapse takes place is entirely dependent upon the policies past and future.

If the government printed every dollar it needed to balance the books, you can bet your butt it would be very soon and very bad.
Isn't that what they are doing with QE3 with no end date?
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:36 PM   #62 (permalink)
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Just a note: The US doesn't have much light sweet crude, so for gasoline we'll continue to need foreign in oil. Of course electricity generation is another matter.

Another thing people need to get. The price of gas will continue to stay high. Americans may not like to hear this, but the US President has very little control over the price of oil? Why? Because the price is determined for international market supply and demand (i.e., capitalism). Oil is expensive now because so much is needed in places like China to literally fuel their massive rate of development.

I'm not saying you don't get this Notorious. I'm just taking the opportunity to point this out, because I'm tired of seeing people talking about gasoline prices and demanding that the president do something about it.



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Mostly true, but oil does is not priced simply by supply and demand. It sharply deviated from supply and demand several years ago. It is all speculation built into the price now. Want proof? The price of oil crashed in 2008. Did supply double? no. Did demand get cut in half? no.

To expound on a point you made, were america producing 100 billion barrels per year and using 100 billion barrels per year, that would not mean we use all of our own oil and thus it is cheaper. If Chevron can make it for 20$ a barrel and sell it for 80$/barrel here versus selling it for 100$/ barrel internationally......... it will be exported.
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:37 PM   #63 (permalink)
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97% of actual climate scientists active in the field say anthropogenic climate scientist is real. 97% is as close to a scientific consensus as you ever get. (And meteorologists aren't climate scientist - they study weather, a local phenomenon, not climate.)


If you lack the patience to watch them all, at least watch the first few. That is if you are brave enough to be open to the possibility that your own views may be wrong.
You have mischaracterized my view ENTIRELY. So how do you dare claim to be open minded?

I never said we have zero effect on climate, and have literally said i know we have some effect. That alone should have removed any reason for you to waste 15 minutes of your time pasting 15 youtube links.

Every scienctist quantifying the manmade effect on climate in a different way is NOT consensus.
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You are illustrating perfectly one of the biggest problems in US politics. That is, calling people with different political views "idiots".

When somebody else is branded an "idiot", there is no room for debate and reaching common ground. It closes off ears and minds to the opposing view and drives people to only seek out media outlets that reaffirm their strongly held views and satisfy their overwhelming urge to be right all the time.
I dont view this as a political issue. More of a logical versus illogical one. There should never be a point where individuals simply throw up their hands and believe something that is told to them. To have the right to speak about your views, I believe you MUST have performed your own research and based your conclusions based on YOUR OWN work.

This requires challenging your views before, during and after. You can see in my very first post that I disproved some VERY idiotic statements that are too often stated.

I think you would be stupid not to look at everyone's viewpoint. You might not end up agreeing with them at all, but you will see things in different ways, and that is very valuable.

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Old 11-12-2012, 02:48 PM   #64 (permalink)
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Isn't that what they are doing with QE3 with no end date?
To an extent. The real trouble comes with money creation that goes parabolic. It doesn't even have to be any further printing to initiate a swift and sharp crash. What could happen is a scenario where our dollar loses demand around the world and us dollars are liquidated in exchange for stuff. The moment that happens, our dollar value is devalued immensely.

We are at the will of the interest rates moving forward. Should interest rates rise to the level that greece's are, you can bet your behind that it will be very quick and very painful.

To get a long, slow downturn, we would have had to face our fiscal disaster decades ago.

Just look at the facts, it will wake you up.

Look at the US finances at the onset of the great depression, and compare them with now.
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Old 11-12-2012, 03:46 PM   #65 (permalink)
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Okay, rapid fire "food for thought".

Risk and its place in market places and the federal government:
Government actions aimed at limiting the free fall (bail outs) have actually ENCOURAGED risk. When you are "too big to fail", you no longer need to worry about the actions you take. The point missed in all of this bailout arguing was that SMALL BUSINESS wasn't too big to fail, and simply..... failed.

Hedge fund managers are/were able to receive a percentage of the gains their hedge fund earns. However, if these hedge funds lose...... it is the investors that lose. This caused excessive speculation at others' expense.

INflation via money printing/creation
When the government creates money out of thin air, it is LITERALLY stealing from each person owning those dollars. The government is then able to spend this money. It is a taxless tax. It is like taking your 8 oz of iced tea and mixing it with another 8 oz of water. You now have 8oz of poor tasting tea and the one diluting just got something for nothing.

Dilution most affects those with more..... for obvious reasons.

Equity Home equity/ stock equity
If your house is worth 100,000 in a depression and 400,000 in a period of prosperity, then what is it worth? It is only real when you make it real!

Values go up/stay up with a limited amount of sellers vs buyers. In a situation where everyone wants to realize their "greater fool theory" possessions at once, prices will necessarily plunge.

Poverty/income mobility
There will ALWAYS be poor people. The real thing worth looking at is income mobility.
The liars and idiots use poverty numbers incorrectly to prove their points.

Capital Gains and the Tax Capital gains are profits made on gambles. Your entire gain is taxable and only 3,xxx of capital losses are deductible. There is no tax bracket for wage earners earning negative incomes.

Example:
-You make 50,000 in capital gains in 2012 and pay 5,000 in taxes on it
-You LOSE 50,000 investing in 2013. You will then be able to deduct 3,xxx for nearly 20 years.

Can you now see why it is not such a cut and dry issue (for and against taxing it like regular income).

SAVINGS!!!!(not spending money)
This is something that democrats trash more than anything. So let's look at what happens when you are thrifty!

When you save 10,000$ and keep it in the bank, that is NOT 10 grand in isolation from the economy. That 10 grand is able to lent out.
Now let's look at two different scenarios.

You buy a car RIGHT NOW. You get an auto loan. Let's say you get a 10k loan, and over 5 years (principal + interest) you end up paying 12k(200/mo payments). It doesnt end there. There is a cost associated had you saved money and built interest on it.

You buy a car in 5 years. You save 200$/mo, but as interest compounds that accrues etc etc. At the end of the 5 year period you have 12k + the interest accrued. You can now afford the same car and have money left over OR afford a more expensive car. You can then begin saving for your next car. It is a vicious cycle of wealth building that only requires an investment of....... time

Why is it that politicians just don't get this?

Borrowing to produce is different than borrowing to consume!

Minimum Wage
The minimum wage laws actually create UNEMPLOYMENT. Those that maintain employment benefit, but individuals not hired receive 0$/hour

It is common sense. To stay in business you have to stay profitable. If you have 100 in sales, and 70 in operating costs, then you can afford 4 minimum wage workers. Were it lower, you could afford 5 or more lower paid workers.

I am not advocating low pay. I am simply advocating performanced based pay. If a company only wishes to pay $3/hour, then it won't have any applicants.

What the minimum wage laws have done is simply defer costs onto the government. Those that would have otherwise be employed are now on unemployment etc. This like many other things can't be removed/reduced once in place........ so it is only worth discussion.

Top-down versus bottom-up economics
The liars and idiots love this one. The over-simplified view:
T-D: give tax cuts to the rich and theyll hire more, they will then have money to spend.
B-U: Give poor people money to spend, which spurs demand and then business will hire.

Just consider not what we should do, but what we should be as a country.
Job growth would be greater if there was no income tax, kinda common sense right? Remember, you can save all you want, you are allowing someone else to spend with your savings. Just think, if you had more money in your pocket right now..... would you spend more? Whether it be now or over 10 years?

Subsidies (tax/direct)
Subsidies are literally rewards to do a specific behavior. Just look at all of the government tax breaks and grants etc out there. That is what the government wants you to do.

Now look at what is taxed. That is essentially the inverse. The more you earn the more you are "punished".

If you have 5 kids, the government will bless you with monetary benefits. People no longer have to plan on when to have kids with whether it is affordable or not, they can just go "do it". It is a reward for (in many cases) bad behavior. Rewarding bad behavior only begets more bad behavior.

Most of these are rather impossible to remove/reduce, so just more food for thought.

STIMULUS
What does stimulus cost? Rather, what does any government spending cost? The liars and idiots will throw out the $ amount first spent. When in a fiscal situation that we are in there are additional costs that are rarely, if ever noted.

Example:

if you are currently borrowing........

a4, b3, c2, d1

Additional borrowing increases the borrowing costs for current and future expenses. You get:

a5, b4, c3, d2, e1

The increased cost to borrow on every expense is the real additional cost.

Last edited by manshoon11; 11-13-2012 at 06:17 AM.
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Old 11-12-2012, 04:24 PM   #66 (permalink)
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Capital Gains and the Tax Capital gains are profits made on gambles. Your entire gain is taxable and only 3,xxx of capital losses are deductible. There is no tax bracket for wage earners earning negative incomes.

Example:
-You make 50,000 in capital gains in 2012 and pay 5,000 in taxes on it
-You LOSE 50,000 investing in 2013. You will then be able to deduct 3,xxx for nearly 20 years.

Can you now see why it is not such a cut and dry issue (for and against taxing it like regular income).
If you invest money (NOT GAMBLE) you should expect a return on the investment. This is money that has already been taxed and is at risk to go either Up or Down. The government has little downside risk and 100% upside gain. Doesn't quite seem fair to me. If an individual takes the risk, doesn't it stand to reason they should reap 100% of the reward?
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Old 11-12-2012, 05:51 PM   #67 (permalink)
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Someone just linked this too me, thought it was friggen hilarious!! It has gone from 25k signatures, to 46k sigs since I saw it about 4 hours ago.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...nment/BmdWCP8B
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:52 PM   #68 (permalink)
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Someone just linked this too me, thought it was friggen hilarious!! It has gone from 25k signatures, to 46k sigs since I saw it about 4 hours ago.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...nment/BmdWCP8B
I'm all for it. As long as I can move there first.
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:00 PM   #69 (permalink)
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/facepalm. While I'm sure most of you understand this could not and will never happen - a ton of those who signed actually believe we (Texas) have the right to. I know there are idiots everywhere, but come on people...
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:02 PM   #70 (permalink)
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/facepalm. While I'm sure most of you understand this could not and will never happen - a ton of those who signed actually believe we (Texas) have the right to. I know there are idiots everywhere, but come on people...
When wouldn't the Republic of Texas have the right to break off?
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:07 PM   #71 (permalink)
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There is no Republic of Texas. Most Texans never learned their history. The only option the annexation allowed was for Texas to break into 4 separate US states. Texas cannot secceed from the United States.

Quote:
New States of convenient size not exceeding four in number, in addition to said State of Texas and having sufficient population, may, hereafter by the consent of said State, be formed out of the territory thereof, which shall be entitled to admission under the provisions of the Federal Constitution.
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:29 PM   #72 (permalink)
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There is no Republic of Texas. Most Texans never learned their history. The only option the annexation allowed was for Texas to break into 4 separate US states. Texas cannot secceed from the United States.
Texas can in fact, any State that willfully joined the union, can willfully leave the union.

But of course it would never happen... Though, it would be very entertaining!! =D

Right up there with a global emp to kill off all of the idiots.
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:34 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Haha, we can theoretically leave, but somehow the rumor started that Texas can just say 'Nope - we're done, back to the Republic' - which cannot happen.

An EMP for idiots would be a nice thing. But the trick is defining 'idiot' - or else I'm pretty sure 95% of the global population would be dead.
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:54 PM   #74 (permalink)
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No worry about EMP's. Worry about financial collapse first.
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Old 11-12-2012, 09:12 PM   #75 (permalink)
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lol.. an EMP will not kill anyone. not even idiots, unless said idiot is made from un-shielded microprocessors.

all this talk about eliminating a large percentage of the population is.. disconcerting...
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Old 11-12-2012, 09:27 PM   #76 (permalink)
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lol.. an EMP will not kill anyone. not even idiots, unless said idiot is made from un-shielded microprocessors.

all this talk about eliminating a large percentage of the population is.. disconcerting...
The sad thing is..... I think you are serious...

It was a reference to Revolution.

I never once said an EMP would kill anyone, or could for that matter...
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Old 11-13-2012, 06:33 AM   #77 (permalink)
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IamBatman - I think the reference was for an EMP like device. However, I think it was understood everyone was kidding. I'm fairly certain no one wants to kill a large amount of people.

Back to lurking in these threads. The Texas thing just throws me for a loop every time I hear it.
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Old 11-13-2012, 07:23 AM   #78 (permalink)
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How have I missed this thread for so long... I ran out of popcorn twice while reading.



Please give me a few hours to make it to the store before you continue. Thank you!
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Old 11-13-2012, 07:24 AM   #79 (permalink)
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What is the government doing by delaying/not paying for debts

If you get an auto loan, you pay towards the principal monthly. However the federal government only pays the interest. As the interest adds up, you have to borrow more to cover that. Whenever politicians and economists try to rationalize government policy, they ignore how real finances work. Don't believe me? Ask yourself if you could run a fiscal deficit for DECADES and then still be "better off" by spending more. Social security was in surplus until only a few years ago. When politicians say they will reduce the deficit.... With their means, they can't. Interest rates will rise and it will cost hundreds of billions more just to "maintain" the debt.

So what is it that politicians are actually doing? By putting off fiscal sanity... They are maintaining our buying power at artificially elevated levels. There is no support for the amount of purchasing power per capita that exists. Had we never went down the road of debts and deficits, our nation would be building wealth and building purchasing power on solid ground. Instead, the entire world has subsidized our purchasing power.
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Old 11-13-2012, 08:04 AM   #80 (permalink)
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IamBatman - I think the reference was for an EMP like device. However, I think it was understood everyone was kidding. I'm fairly certain no one wants to kill a large amount of people.

Back to lurking in these threads. The Texas thing just throws me for a loop every time I hear it.
+1, you are correct, it was merely playful banter.

Haha look how many signatures it has now.
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