Any stock traders out there?

[rraicu]

I picked up some WM calls and made about 75%, too in a couple days. However, given the volatility I had to pay through to get those contracts with WM near "the bottom" I may as well have just bought the stock outright. Granted, it's a different risk profile then I wanted to take but the vix deflation really creamed options buyers on the way back up. Seriously though, stock goes up about 60% and the options go up about 75% is a really crappy outcome IMO.

[25psi_Elise_Killer]

Originally Posted by rraicu

Seriously though, stock goes up about 60% and the options go up about 75% is a really crappy outcome IMO.

The option probably has a low delta. So that's why the corresponding change was small.

[rraicu]

Originally Posted by 25psi_Elise_Killer

The option probably has a low delta. So that's why the corresponding change was small.

at the money option, it was pretty much all that vega that came out. i think...

[street_carp]

Originally Posted by snuggles1

the original question: are there any stock traders out there? i think the answer may be: There are fewer now >> As we put in another leg down, minus 200 bippers. Quick way to cycle out the undisciplined and long-only types!

I'm one, but not the kind you're looking for. I day trade and it's all I've done for the last 6 years. I don't care too much about the direction of the market for trading. In my IRA account I do own one long-term stock - Berkshire...the B shares not A.

I did see someone mention Jim Cramer. Wow...if you value your money pay no attention to this guy. Search to find out how many stocks he was cheer leading for just as the market began to fall.

Haha...I'm going to have to look out for future "how low it can go" stocks.

[rraicu]

Originally Posted by street_carp

I'm one, but not the kind you're looking for. I day trade and it's all I've done for the last 6 years.

what instrument(s) do you trade?

[Harponian]

I recently have found myself with the time and resources to start. What are some references you would recommend to someone just starting out? Any advice? Do you care to share you story on how you got started?

[street_carp]

Originally Posted by rraicu

what instrument(s) do you trade?

Only stocks.

[street_carp]

Originally Posted by Harponian

I recently have found myself with the time and resources to start. What are some references you would recommend to someone just starting out? Any advice? Do you care to share you story on how you got started?

You mean me? Obviously you need cash. About $50K to start with (a min. of $25K is required for day trading) and enough cash to live on for at least two years. (If you have other sources of income, great.) The belief is traders always lose their first year and I definitely did.

I broke even the 2nd year...showed a small profit the 3rd, and made decent profits the next three years. I admit this year I'm down and probably will lose for the year. It's not a good feeling when it's your only source of income esp. when buying a house. That's another reason why my car is for sale; there's too much uncertainty in my income.

For references I'd visit elitetrader.com, but believe me, 95% of the threads will just waste your time with panic, greed, and stupidity. At least you will start understanding the language of trading. Remember that 90% of traders supposedly lose so if you take average trader's advice then you will be a loser too. Don't worry about the first couple of years losing though. Losing at the start is a good teacher.

I don't recommend spending much or anything on books or courses on how to trade. (If your method works then why sell it is what I always ask?) There is so much you can find on the internet, plus the library has many books you can read for free. There isn't one book that changed my life or my trading method, otherwise I'd recommend it. Maybe someone else will have more recommendations on books or how to start.

[rraicu]

I think books are a fantastic way to get started. I've been reading market related books non-stop for a few years now and I can't imagine myself stopping. I also recommend reading blogs. There are a BUNCH of well written and informative blogs out there. I started with some basic technical analysis BS back in the day and then decided to back test strategies and came up with nothing significant versus random trading. Straight up Technical analysis is NO better than entering and exiting randomly. However, if you have a technique on using technical signals as part of a bigger system than you can definitely turn TA into a profitable strategy but in my experience drawdowns are fairly large. Ok, enough with the TA talk. Back to books and blogs; my vision of trading is that it's closely linked to global macroeconomics. I can't envision trading a security or currency without having a "big picture" view. Speaking of big picture, here is a nice blog to get you started and the list of books on the site is also a great place to get started. =) Hope you're not looking to make profits any time soon. The Big Picture

[snuggles1]

"Straight up Technical analysis is NO better than entering and exiting randomly ">> this is a bizarre, unfounded statement, and its not backed up empirically. Typical of message boards.

I developed my own method several years ago; managed my own funds; managed private accounts; then founded my own hedge fund. All of it is pure TA. And I'll give u my method for free. Noone ever actually uses it anyway so it's not a big deal. The method is important but its only one of the keys.

For those who are sincerely interested in successful trading, PM me. My win rate is over 70%, and its audited.

You dont need to lose money for a year; thats as arbitrary a statement as the "enter and exit randomly" statement. Lead with the data. Listen to the data. Whats far more important than the arbitrary "one year" comment is your win rate. Briefly: your win rates need to logged, tracked and improved on. If you cant consistently bang our 45 - 50% winners, then go back and refine your method til you can. When you're over 50%, good deal.

Create a matrix that implies trading profit at various win rates. Make it mechanical, and dont listen to anyone (blogs or not) unless theyve got a better win rate/method/matrix than u do. Mine have been tracked for close to a decade.

Finally, theres nothing wrong with daytrading per se. But, as you churn the data, ask yourself why your holding period should be < 6.5 hours. You may prefer that. You may not. Not gonna recommend anything... just ask the right questions.

[rraicu]

Originally Posted by snuggles1

"Straight up Technical analysis is NO better than entering and exiting randomly ">> this is a bizarre, unfounded statement, and its not backed up empirically.

my definition of TA is the standard entry level information that is spread around in beginners daytrading books and internet websites and labeled as TA. For example, "buy on the cross of this moving average and this moving average" or use "stochastics" or "macd" crosses. Or for that matter using all other lagging indicators which are only that, lagging, and can never predict the future successfully by themselves.

Typical of message boards.

now this isn't yahoo finance boards is it...

I developed my own method several years ago; managed my own funds; managed private accounts; then founded my own hedge fund. All of it is pure TA. And I'll give u my method for free. Noone ever actually uses it anyway so it's not a big deal. The method is important but its only one of the keys.

I wouldn't mind taking a look at your ideas. However, using one persons success as justification that a "method" or "strategy" works is confirmation bias and is not useful in making a decision whether acting on these strategies yields positive expectancy in the long run. This judgment is reserved only with further analysis, so please don't take my skepticism as condescending, I'm always skeptical when I hear results without further research.

For those who are sincerely interested in successful trading, PM me. My win rate is over 70%, and its audited.

That's half the equation, you need to also list your profit/loss ratio along with the win rate. I can show you personal trading results that have over 95% win rate and still lose in the long run.....I'm working on modifying this to yield positive expectancy.

You dont need to lose money for a year; thats as arbitrary a statement as the "enter and exit randomly" statement.

The point behind stating the "enter and exit randomly" idea is that one aspect required for a strategy to be labeled as positive expectancy is that it must be better than randomness. Moreover, from my personal experience, when I had tremendous success my first year trading I didn't bother doing much research and chalked it up as "i'm really smart." Only later when I was losing did I begin to do research. In this sense, only winning becomes hazardous to the beginner because they will be inclined to take more risk with even less research and information and less preparadness than adequate. Again, i'm referring to those who are beginning in this field.

Create a matrix that implies trading profit at various win rates. Make it mechanical, and dont listen to anyone (blogs or not) unless theyve got a better win rate/method/matrix than u do. Mine have been tracked for close to a decade.

I agree, this is absolutely necessary.

Finally, theres nothing wrong with daytrading per se. But, as you churn the data, ask yourself why your holding period should be < 6.5 hours. You may prefer that. You may not. Not gonna recommend anything... just ask the right questions.

I believe in always challenging yourself, your trading strategy and trying to come up with situations where it won't work as opposed to only focus on situations where it will work.

Cheers

[snuggles1]

my definition of TA is the standard entry level information that is spread around in beginners daytrading books and internet websites and labeled as TA. For example, "buy on the cross of this moving average and this moving average" or use "stochastics" or "macd" crosses. Or for that matter using all other lagging indicators which are only that, lagging, and can never predict the future successfully by themselves. >>

there's a ton of bad TA out there. And poorly applied as well. There's a ton of bad FA. And poorly applied. Let's be fair to both camps.

Funny how the FA guys never seem to have win rates to post though, isnt it?? ;-)

[rraicu]

Originally Posted by snuggles1

there's a ton of bad TA out there. And poorly applied as well. There's a ton of bad FA. And poorly applied. Let's be fair to both camps.

Funny how the FA guys never seem to have win rates to post though, isnt it?? ;-)

Depends on your definition of FA, and how you apply and execute FA decisions. Some people may attribute BRK's performance to FA....I think the definitions of FA and TA change with experience and exposure.

So, who's betting washington mutual goes under in the next month?

[25psi_Elise_Killer]

Snuggles, check out AVR again, broke out from a minor $6 resistance levels...

[snuggles1]

Originally Posted by 25psi_Elise_Killer

Snuggles, check out AVR again, broke out from a minor $6 resistance levels...

Beauty, man! nice move. I just get a little sqeamish when theyre +40% their 50dma. Call me old fashioned, but if I coulda played it by scaling into it on a few stops I would have, rather than grabbing it at $7. Just me. I'm conservative relative to the 50 dma.

MDCO attractive here. And only +15% to its 50 dma.

[25psi_Elise_Killer]

Originally Posted by snuggles1

Beauty, man! nice move. I just get a little sqeamish when theyre +40% their 50dma. Call me old fashioned, but if I coulda played it by scaling into it on a few stops I would have, rather than grabbing it at $7. Just me. I'm conservative relative to the 50 dma.

MDCO attractive here. And only +15% to its 50 dma.

I legged it by going in at $6.50 and $4.50 and now its $7.02 on AVR. Plus i use their products in my car!

MDCO kinda looks like a head & shoulders formation which began in late June. If it goes below $20, i could see it dropping to at least $17.50

[snuggles1]

Originally Posted by 25psi_Elise_Killer

I legged it by going in at $6.50 and $4.50 and now its $7.02 on AVR. Plus i use their products in my car!

MDCO kinda looks like a head & shoulders formation which began in late June. If it goes below $20, i could see it dropping to at least $17.50

MDCO is a textbook long per my method. Classic baby!

[rraicu]

Anyone down for making a thread dedicated to trading? we're kind of completely off the main question here. =)

[25psi_Elise_Killer]

I must've fell asleep during that college lecture

Check out AMGN to see if it fits your criteria...

[snuggles1]

Originally Posted by 25psi_Elise_Killer

I must've fell asleep during that college lecture

Check out AMGN to see if it fits your criteria...

I know the AMGN chrt well. Obviously in an uptrend; I prefer tight, well-formed bases is all. I see > 300 chrts a day and only play2 or 3 or 4. Picky picky!