Investing during the Coming Recession

[Beanie]

Tired of talking about gloom and doom yet? If so, I ask you savvy LotusTalk guys & gals what your thoughts are on "recession-proof" investing.

[lotusforsale]

Start hoarding water, food and ammunition.

[Chris Mackey]

Guns and gold.

[wantanelise]

not gonna' do much good when china, iran, n korea, and russia stomp their asses in your house and take all your stuff.

[lotusforsale]

Originally Posted by wantanelise

not gonna' do much good when china, n korea, stomp their asses in your house and take all your stuff.

That's where all my stuff came from to begin with.

[wantanelise]

lol, wow there's some irony, good point.

[Phantom Lotus]

Simple.

I'm going to short CarMax and Auto Nation before they report earnings on October 19th/20th.

Next comes overpriced commercial real estate investment trusts, like VNO. More can be found HERE.

Plenty of other stocks out there to sell short. My favorites since last year have been DECK, FSLR and BIDU just to name a few.

My all time favorite global recession proof investment has been to BUY JAPANESE YEN. I've been shouting this since July of 2007 when it was priced at 120 to the dollar. That country is a ****ing fortress. Their domestic economy is largely insulated, due to a household savings pile of $14 trillion vs a deficit of only $8 trillion. Sure... Their export industry will suffer and the stock market along with it. But their local economy will remain on track. The populace isn't reliant upon loans like us. As a result, their currency will strengthen as we are forced to inflate the Dollar back at home.

Selling the Pound in exchange for Yen is another option. It's all about household debt/income ratios! The US/UK each have record levels of DEBT. Japan has excess SAVINGS. That's why they have been crediting the world since the 90's. But this ended in July 2007 when the PRC began buying up Yen, in concert with Iran and Russia. This killed the carry trade. We no longer have and endless supply of easy credit at near 0% interest rates from the Bank of Japan. Their interbank lending rate to NYC has jumped to 3%. The PRC completely banned interbank lending to the US a week ago. Does anybody get this? The flood of easy money from Japan is more to blame for the massive bubbles seen the world over than Greenspan. Now that is finished with. We have no choice but to lower interest rates and print money wildy at home to compensate. End result = DOLLAR GOES DOWN.

"USD/JPY will crack below 100 within a year" - August 2007
"GBP/JPY will crack below 200 within a year" - January 2008

I was absolutely correct. Since then, I've been given more information which leads me to believe that Yen will continue to appreciate for at least another year. Unfortunately, I spent all my money on Melanie before being clued into the situation at hand. Then I had a complete break down and checked out on life. To date I still have not been able to take advantage of this bear market while everyone else is caught off guard. WM and LEH went bankrupt? Yeah. I knew that was going to happen over 12 months ago! Wish I could have shorted them!!!

It aint over yet though! Now I'm on a mission to create a hedge fund, raise capital, and improve the lives around me. Failure is not an option.

DISCLAIMER: This is not a recommendation or investment advice. I am simply providing information for your interpretation. Please do not act on anything I say. Unless you're an experienced investor, you will likely lose money if you're not familiar with how to properly leverage or time your trades. Concentrate on your day job!!!

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by lotusforsale

Start hoarding water, food and ammunition.

Don't forget to buy a tank.

[Noisycow]

Silver; preferably one ounce coins. Anything but dollars, that are backed by nothing. You will be using them for fire starters or to wipe your butt. Of course, the other things mentioned to also to try and keep you safe. Lots of freeze dried food. A water purifier kit/pump and decontamination pills for same.

When I saw George Carlin three years ago in Vegas he was talking about 'good neighbors.' He went on to say how good will your neighbors be when the electricity and running water are cut off for a few months? When money is worthless and you have no heat? Mad Max, pre-planned. Carlin .... damn I miss that guy.

The good news is with the printing presses running at full tilt we should have a few months of boom times. Lots of liquidity. But like a Meth addict, the USA will then crash hard and probably die financially. Don't fret for our mis-leaders though, they've lined their pockets well along with their billionaire wallstreet pals. It is the lower 98%, and that includes millionaires, that are going to get stomped on. There were many millionaires in the breadlines.

[lotusforsale]

Originally Posted by Noisycow

Silver; preferably one ounce coins. Anything but dollars, that are backed by nothing. You will be using them for fire starters or to wipe your butt. Of course, the other things mentioned to also to try and keep you safe. Lots of freeze dried food. A water purifier kit/pump and decontamination pills for same.

When I saw George Carlin three years ago in Vegas he was talking about 'good neighbors.' He went on to say how good will your neighbors be when the electricity and running water are cut off for a few months? When money is worthless and you have no heat? Mad Max, pre-planned. Carlin .... damn I miss that guy.

The good news is with the printing presses running at full tilt we should have a few months of boom times. Lots of liquidity. But like a Meth addict, the USA will then crash hard and probably die financially. Don't fret for our mis-leaders though, they've lined their pockets well along with their billionaire wallstreet pals. It is the lower 98%, and that includes millionaires, that are going to get stomped on. There were many millionaires in the breadlines.

Cash isn't backed by gold or silver, true.

But what is gold and silver backed by? Really, to leverage its value when needed, what does it need to be converted to?

[pla_time]

Originally Posted by lotusforsale

Cash isn't backed by gold or silver, true.

But what is gold and silver backed by? Really, to leverage its value when needed, what does it need to be converted to?

Really, in a financial apocalypse, you need to think more in terms of bartering. How likely is that silver and gold will be useful under those conditions. I think I'd concentrate on putting in a supply of bourbon. A couple of nice old kegs should provide for your old age. Even if the crisis never materializes, you can at least enjoy it yourself in your fallout shelter.

[kestrel74]

Land. ( They're not making it anymore ! )

[Beanie]

Hmmm.... too bad Jack Daniels Distillery isn't one of the choices for my 401K plan.

[plastique999]

I'm surprised no one would invest more $$$ into their lotus...after all, it is your true love right?...and that which you would part with last...when everything gets repo'd

[apk919]

I'm going to go out and get a copy of "The Omega Man" on DVD. Not the Will Smith version, the Charlton Heston version.

Then I'm going to watch it, and take notes...

[looney]

Originally Posted by plastique999

I'm surprised no one would invest more $$$ into their lotus...after all, it is your true love right?...and that which you would part with last...when everything gets repo'd

exactly,

im not investing or saving, im spending,

cant really make much money at the moment anyway, why not just enjoy it until the next upturn (if there ever is one LOL)

[logo29a]

Fighting (mma, boxing, etc.), alcohol, and pornography always do well during recessions.

[morphic]

Originally Posted by Noisycow

Silver; preferably one ounce coins.

Why silver and not gold or both?

[milehitom]

Originally Posted by apk919

I'm going to go out and get a copy of "The Omega Man" on DVD. Not the Will Smith version, the Charlton Heston version.

Then I'm going to watch it, and take notes...

Good idea, but I think I'll rent "Soylent Green" instead. Then write down the recipes.

Tom

[bolt]

If you don't mind waiting several years for a noticeable amount in possible gain, and can afford to put aside a large sum of money outside of your useable funds then i'd suggest looking at real estate in the outskirts of Oklahoma City towards Norman. I'd also suggest land on the outskirts of Tulsa in the southern region. Just buy a plot of land that possibly become a commercial area.

The gap between those two cities is continually closing. And as Norman is a college town, it'll always be active. It shares similar characteristics with Austin when it began as a college town. (Though the key difference is that Austin is the capital of Texas which is a guarantee in growth)

-Growing areas and high end real estate will always have a growth in value. Just avoid places where there's a mass production of housing.

-Texas real estate is one of the best in the nation.

-Commercial real estate has the highest return but only because it's riskier. Though it can be significantly less of a hassle when leasing out a commercial lot as opposed to leasing out multiple rental townhomes.

-Never build a home to specifications to only match your personal tastes, unless you plan to live there for the rest of your life.

-Most people tend to lose money in real estate simply because they don't know what they're doing or are attempting to make money with money they don't have (Mortgages).

In my opinion, it's ideal to rent out townhomes in higher end areas. With the economy being how it is, there should be a significant growth in renting. Also when buying a home, you should always look for a home with a larger lot, but don't sacrifice anything.

(If home A is a million dollars with .5 acres and home B is .65 acres at a million dollars in the same area, go with the latter). Home B would more likely be an older home. Remodel the house, live there and enjoy it then tear it down to build a new home. Enjoy the new home for a bit then sell.


Sorry for the length....I started to get into it...

Oh, Does anyone here invest in hedge funds or have an extensive knowledge about them? If you don't mind, would you pm me with somewhat of a basic knowledge about them and some advice.

DISCLAIMER: Use any information provided at your own risk. I do not claim to know better; I am just listing some of the things I believe are common sense about real estate; things which should be known before making an attempt on real estate investing.