Investing during the Coming Recession

[snuggles1]

god, this looks ugly this am...

and an hour in, looks like the rout is on. Quick 5 pts!

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by snuggles1

god, this looks ugly this am...

and an hour in, looks like the rout is on. Quick 5 pts!

Ugly for the masses. Looks beautiful to me, because I nailed my intermediate target on GBP/JPY today!!! The only ugly part is that despite making accurate calls the past two years, I still haven't attracted any investors into my fund. As it stands I can't make any moves!!! Armchair quarterback, as you say, but a damn good one for what that's worth -- NOTHING

Below is an excerpt from an email sent to a potential investor on September 15th. It's a follow up to an email sent on January 12th, where I called for GBP/JPY to reach 199.99 by end of 2008. That came to pass in August, but I still haven't received any credit for being correct.

"Rick,

Was I right or was I right? GBP/JPY cracked below 200 late August, all the way to the high 180's, before rebounding back to the 190's where it rests now. My intermediate target has always been 175. It's not too late for you to profit off this."

[Noisycow]

The scam bailout will go to 2-3 billion or $8k to 12k for every American. Amazing that people actually welcome being ripped off and their livelyhood destroyed to benefit the richest 1%.

Put a fork in the US economy, it is done.

[snuggles1]

Originally Posted by Noisycow

The scam bailout will go to 2-3 billion or $8k to 12k for every American. Amazing that people actually welcome being ripped off and their livelyhood destroyed to benefit the richest 1%.

Put a fork in the US economy, it is done.

hey Noisy,

I think that bailout is with a "t", not a "b"!

I think Fuld (CNBC coverage) is going down ... many lawsuits will follow.

[Phantom Lotus]

Fuld's testimony reminds me of Baghdad Bob on camera...

YouTube - Mohammed Saïd al-Sahaf

What a joker. I wish Ackman would kick him down an empty elevator shaft.

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by Noisycow

The scam bailout will go to 2-3 billion or $8k to 12k for every American. Amazing that people actually welcome being ripped off and their livelyhood destroyed to benefit the richest 1%.

Put a fork in the US economy, it is done.

Agreed.

The Japanese carry trade is done. $700B will not be enough to make up for that. Unemployment will rise to 8% plus. Lending may not fire up again. Dollar hegemony is severely threatened.

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by Phantom Lotus

Simple.

I'm going to short CarMax and Auto Nation before they report earnings on October 19th/20th.

Next comes overpriced commercial real estate investment trusts, like VNO. More can be found HERE.

Commercial RE is in full fledged disaster mode. The worst performers in the financial sector today. Hope those of you with money shorted some trusts!

CarMax down over 10% since I mentioned them.



Too bad I don't have any backing

[Noisycow]

Billions, trillions ... hard to tell the difference when you are getting bent over. 2-3 Trillion and then they really get the prize they've been waiting for - the end of prosperity except for the 1%. The fact that they are being handed the money right now, freely, will go down as sadly comical.

[tandemracer]

Originally Posted by Phantom Lotus

CarMax down over 10% since I mentioned them.



(

Don't mention any more companies!!!

[snuggles1]

short ........ nowhere to run if ure long here???

[Phantom Lotus]

The only reason to go short here is if you expect complete Armageddon.

Looks like we're setting up for a temporary bottom.

Eventually the DOW will see 8000 points. For now, the selling appears exhausted. USD/JPY at 99. I'll probably go long soon for a temporary bounce to 105+. Then try to build a massive short position for the next leg down. We should see 90 before BoJ intervenes!

[Phantom Lotus]

NOV looks good at these levels. Plenty of new fields in Alaska waiting to be drilled!

[Phantom Lotus]

Rebound underway.

USD/JPY at 100. Time to buy.

Hopefully derivatives won't blow up tomorrow!

[chapster5]

Its probably better not knowing whats going on, but i dont understand whats so bad if we go into recessionl, people say finance will stand still, i just think well so? i dont know what that will do so dont bother me lol, somone explain please

Thanks

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by apk919

Just curious... why would the onset of a worldwide recession (or at least slowdown) plus oil at <$90/bbl lead to an increase in oil drilling in Alaska? Especially with Obama ahead in the polls and Democrats in congress?

You're right. That may not be a good call in the long run. I was looking for potential buys for tandemracer's sake. OPEC is meeting next month, there's a good chance oil will be back above $100 then. Plus they got a major beatdown recently. Felt it was due for a bounce. Stock was $29 at the time of my post. Closed for the day at $34. I'm not a day trader but the market wide selloff at today's close would convince me to sell it afterhours.

I'm still planning on going long Thursday, but wouldn't recommend it until we close positive for once.

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by chapster5

Its probably better not knowing whats going on, but i dont understand whats so bad if we go into recessionl, people say finance will stand still, i just think well so? i dont know what that will do so dont bother me lol, somone explain please

Thanks

We're already in a recession. This is about avoiding The Great Depression Part 2. The 70's recession wiped out 40% over 2 years. This time around, the S&P dropped 38% in a year. Down 25% since September alone.

[Mr. Oz]

Here is my plan......

If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you will have $49.00 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you will have $33.00 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you will have $0.00 today. But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of Budweiser one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you will have received $214.00.



Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily & recycle. It is called the 401-Keg.

[Cali]

Originally Posted by Mr. Oz

Here is my plan......

If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you will have $49.00 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you will have $33.00 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you will have $0.00 today. But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of Budweiser one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you will have received $214.00.



Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily & recycle. It is called the 401-Keg.

I like it! The new Car & Driver issue has an article about how it would make more sense to invest in collector cars, since they now hold their value better than stocks or land...

[chapster5]

Originally Posted by Phantom Lotus

We're already in a recession. This is about avoiding The Great Depression Part 2. The 70's recession wiped out 40% over 2 years. This time around, the S&P dropped 38% in a year. Down 25% since September alone.

Thanks for the help, cant decpher what your saying (non money minded) so what did you say? but in english this time lol

[Phantom Lotus]

Originally Posted by chapster5

Thanks for the help, cant decpher what your saying (non money minded) so what did you say? but in english this time lol

You asked earlier... What's the big deal about the market dropping into a recession???

Recessions are fine. It's part of the business cycle. Depressions are deadly. That is what the world is trying to prevent at the moment. The market would have crashed without a doubt today if it weren't for the Fed buying bank stocks. Riots and death have been averted. That's not what we want.

I invested in the bailout and a rally today. God bless America. May she live on. Brought my account balance from $128 to $2420 today!!! Will post proof soon



EDIT: Correction: $123 starting balance.