Tour de France

[mopho]

Anyone following it? Think Lance can win it again? Discuss....

[tandemracer]

I was skeptical before the start, but Lance seems to be in good form. We'll see how he fares after a few mountain stages. Old men don't recover as quickly.

[TTP]

I still think Contador will win. Not counting Mellow Johnny out of a 2nd or 3rd place podium though. Even Carmichael is headging a bit:

"He remains a long shot, but that being said he's also Lance Armstrong ... Nobody's ever walked the face of the Earth who's been able to win that race better than Lance."

-Chris Carmichael describes Lance Armstrong's chances of winning an 8th Tour this year

In years past I don't think you'd hear this from Carmichael. We will see once they hit the mountains.

[mikester]

It would be an amazing story if he did. Even to be at this level, at his age and given his prior comeback from cancer etc., is already a huge achievement.

Story in the LA Times today or yesterday says that Sony is working on (financing) a documentary about him, should be something. It's being made by Alex Gibney, the fellow who worked on Taxi to the Dark Side.

[mopho]

Lance looked like he was hurting at the end of the team time trial yesterday, but it seems he held on to his overall position today. Friday will be a test for sure

[over40]

Yes, I think he can. After the gap in stage 3, and the TTT yesterday, his is ahead of Sastre and Evans the two guys he needs to worry about as they can TT and climb mountains. Tony Martin the young guy might be interesting to watch, he seems to have potential.

The question that might be more interesting is will he be allowed to?

Contrador is very strong too, and Johan might say sorry Lance.

On a silly note has anyone else noticed that Levi has a very large helmet?

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/147/4...9c4bcc.jpg?v=0

I was wondering if he is related to Slaughter? Twins separated at birth? Or is this how he really earns a living? Give us the inside story Slaughter! Are Lance and Contrador tearing each other apart in the team bus?

[paulhastings]

Truth will be in the mountains! It would be cool but, I think Contador is just going to fly up the mountains. I do believe his main contenders will all come from his own team. The only way another team will break through is if there is a real conflict within Astana which I don't think will happen. I think those guys already know what they are going to do and the first day or two in the mountains will be telling.

[mikester]

Originally Posted by over40

...has anyone else noticed that Levi has a very large helmet?

...that's what she said !

ba-dum-bum thank you very much I'll be here all week....

[mopho]

Originally Posted by paulhastings

I think those guys already know what they are going to do and the first day or two in the mountains will be telling.

Good point, I can't imagine they didn't discuss the different scenarios and what they would do. Still wouldn't want to be the one making that decision and have to deal with the ego's.

[Surferjer]

I'm following it closely. What will the team do in the mountains? Usher them both up? I mean, it's easy to protect one rider for the last push of each climb, but protecting two? Will they split time in the catbird seat, or will it be the Lance show, and Contador has to earn his the hard way? If they protect both, it will be hard on the rest of the team, and could hurt both's chances. But if successful, it might come down to the individual time trials. Fun to watch for sure.

[fitfan]

the ttt and the previsous stage where columbia steped on it and droped the paleton were amazing! shaping up to be an epic tour.

don't think lance or astana has any plan of lance winning, but he is there (for now) if contador falls apart. selctions will be made in the pyraness, and race will be lost in the alps. i don't see it coming down to the final tt, and if it does, its pretty clear contador is in tt form.

i just gotta say columbia has put on an very impressive bit of riding so far!

my predictions are - lance tries to win a stage in the pyraness in an effort to take the legs out / sort out the contenders for contador who will not give up time. then contador to drill out 2 days in the alps and run away with it. 1/2 of the usual suspects are allready so far back, they have to damage themselve big time in the pyraness justto get on par in the alps with someone who hasn't had to put in an effort.... contador to 'begin' his ride the last week. astana is so stacked for the mountains its crazy

my last prediction is - mark cavendish the win into paris

[fitfan]

Originally Posted by Surferjer

I'm following it closely. What will the team do in the mountains? Usher them both up? I mean, it's easy to protect one rider for the last push of each climb, but protecting two? Will they split time in the catbird seat, or will it be the Lance show, and Contador has to earn his the hard way? If they protect both, it will be hard on the rest of the team, and could both both's chances. But if successful, it might come down to the individual time trials. Fun to watch for sure.

won;t happen - they have a team director who knows better and played that off t-mobile for years... lance will "strategically" ride for contador - lance will be the rabbit in at least one stage in the pyraness, and protect him in the alps. "if" contador cracks bad or crashes out - then the team will have its work cut out to try to drag lance thorugh the alps.

[fitfan]

Originally Posted by mopho

Good point, I can't imagine they didn't discuss the different scenarios and what they would do. Still wouldn't want to be the one making that decision and have to deal with the ego's.

bruynel is the ross brawn of cycling - with him, there are no egos and the plan was in place many month ago, along with the options, the counter measures, contigencies, etc... he has a book with all written out. astana is just being savvy withthe media playing sucker.

[fitfan]

Originally Posted by paulhastings

Truth will be in the mountains! It would be cool but, I think Contador is just going to fly up the mountains. I do believe his main contenders will all come from his own team. The only way another team will break through is if there is a real conflict within Astana which I don't think will happen. I think those guys already know what they are going to do and the first day or two in the mountains will be telling.

I agree - bryunel's pie in the sky plan is an astana 1,2,3... there will be no conflict in astana. i think bryunel would release a rider on the spot if that truely were the case. and the riders know that. they knew and agreed to, their jobs when the signed on to be on the tour selection. lance will get his publicity and have to stop endorsing 5 hour energy. he will make more money losing the tour than contador will wining it!

[mopho]

Originally Posted by fitfan

bruynel is the ross brawn of cycling - with him, there are no egos and the plan was in place many month ago, along with the options, the counter measures, contigencies, etc... he has a book with all written out. astana is just being savvy withthe media playing sucker.

Originally Posted by fitfan

I agree - bryunel's pie in the sky plan is an astana 1,2,3... there will be no conflict in astana. i think bryunel would release a rider on the spot if that truely were the case. and the riders know that. they knew and agreed to, their jobs when the signed on to be on the tour selection. lance will get his publicity and have to stop endorsing 5 hour energy. he will make more money losing the tour than contador will wining it!

Good points!

[lotusland]

Agree that this is shaping up to be an epic tour! I would love to see it play out like the Lemond-Hinault battle -- that was the first Tour I really watched and it was one of the best. I both expect and want Lance to win, so that the entire issue of drugs wrt Lance can be put to rest.

Any fans of racing in general who are not watching this should check it out. The evening compilations on Versus are pretty compact and this is a level of competition that is unmatched IMO.

[lotusland]

Originally Posted by fitfan

won;t happen - they have a team director who knows better and played that off t-mobile for years... lance will "strategically" ride for contador - lance will be the rabbit in at least one stage in the pyraness, and protect him in the alps. "if" contador cracks bad or crashes out - then the team will have its work cut out to try to drag lance thorugh the alps.

Ooooh, I missed this comment before. Sorry, I don't agree. This is way bigger than Johan and if Lance can win it, he will. I don't think any rider at that level looks at this as just a job with a boss. I would be disappointed if they did in fact. Time will tell though!

[cstetter]

Sorry for being so cynical but the man with the best (undetectable) doping will win.

Professional cycling has become a caricature of itself.

[mikester]

Originally Posted by lotusland

Ooooh, I missed this comment before. Sorry, I don't agree. This is way bigger than Johan and if Lance can win it, he will. I don't think any rider at that level looks at this as just a job with a boss. I would be disappointed if they did in fact. Time will tell though!

Yes, time will tell...but having known a few pros, this is their job and they are there to perform as in, to make a performance. Their have been agreements made...for sure with contingency plans, but agreements are made all the time, among and also between teams.

[fitfan]

Originally Posted by lotusland

Ooooh, I missed this comment before. Sorry, I don't agree. This is way bigger than Johan and if Lance can win it, he will. I don't think any rider at that level looks at this as just a job with a boss. I would be disappointed if they did in fact. Time will tell though!

i disagree with your disagrement


here is why - we only think of lance as being so great because he was picked to win and other riders did their job to make him win... we (as the viewing public) have a distorted view of events because we just see the efforts and times - not realizing, some guys job is to "not push too hard in the TT, you have to pull tomorrow" or the opposite "you have to win the TT, but everyone will pull you tomorrow so you can rest"

to us, we see "lance crushed the TT none of his teamates were even close!" "and he lost no time in the next stage!" "he's amazing"

but i do agree with your assertion that if the situation deams it, then option 2 is to put lance in yellow and defend to paris. could happen, anything can happen on the road. contador could get sick, crash out, blow a day and lose 10 mins... anything. of course lance may pop in the alps and finish down in 10th too...