Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Central Virginia
It really comes down to where and when you drive your car. The last time I had to change to a spare was when I was driving the '92 Celica to work in the early morning (before 7AM) and picked up a drywall screw that had fallen out of a truck of construction debris. It was leaking badly, but got me into the parking lot at work before going flat. I changed the tire for the donut and had it plugged the next day.
If you drive near construction or demolition sites there's definitely a higher probability of getting a flat. In the last 20 years, every time I've needed to plug a tire was caused by a nail or screw.