Porsche’s first all electric car... 2020 Taycan thoughts? - LotusTalk - The Lotus Cars Community
 
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post #1 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 07:32 PM Thread Starter
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Porsche’s first all electric car... 2020 Taycan thoughts?

So Porsche isn’t going to let Tesla go unchallenged. The Evija will run circles around it as it’s not a Hypercar. Ferrari and a Lamborghini have both said they aren’t jumping into all electric. Largely because you can’t track a battery powered car for long. They estimate 7minutes all out for the Evija which is better than most electric cars due to the enormous battery... but that’s a pretty short track day for sure.

The Taycan will be a more Tesla like mass market car but much slower than the P100D. 600+hp, 0-62 in 3.5s. Priced low $90’s base to $140K US for the Turbo. Selling later this year and taking deposits now.

https://youtu.be/h0gZF3sPKw4

What do you think of it? Will it be a success? Will Lotus’s next rumored car be a mass market car to take on this and Tesla... but be lighter and with more power? Hence why they made the Evija first. 🤔

https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-c...-mission-e-suv

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...price-release/

https://www.caranddriver.com/porsche/taycan
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post #2 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-17-2019, 05:49 AM
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Ah, the VW brand P 'Model S'. Did anybody not see this one coming? One hopes the doors don't freeze shut on it in cold, wet weather like an actual Model S (designed in Silicon Valley by optimists).

The interesting question is how much of it is parts bin, and how much is bespoke? One reason the Model S performs so well is that pretty much every part of it is optimized for the sports sedan role it has. Parts reuse from the S to the X (and function following form) is why the X is not as good a car by comparison.

One good news item is that, as long as Porsche got somebody talented to do EV drivetrain design, it should be both more reliable and cheaper to keep than native brand P ICEs. The dealer network is also a lot more appealing than with a Tesla, as well.
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post #3 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-17-2019, 01:32 PM Thread Starter
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Ah, the VW brand P 'Model S'. Did anybody not see this one coming? One hopes the doors don't freeze shut on it in cold, wet weather like an actual Model S (designed in Silicon Valley by optimists).

The interesting question is how much of it is parts bin, and how much is bespoke? One reason the Model S performs so well is that pretty much every part of it is optimized for the sports sedan role it has. Parts reuse from the S to the X (and function following form) is why the X is not as good a car by comparison.

One good news item is that, as long as Porsche got somebody talented to do EV drivetrain design, it should be both more reliable and cheaper to keep than native brand P ICEs. The dealer network is also a lot more appealing than with a Tesla, as well.
Very good point. Porsche has a great dealer network for sure. Tesla and Lotus are lacking there.

I like the Tesla and considered it. I drove 4K miles a month for work so the range just isn’t practical for me. Drive 3-4 hours for a meeting. Then have to stop and recharge instead of being able to spend 5 minutes getting gas doesn’t work for business travel. If I had an office job then it would be feasible.
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post #4 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 08:27 AM
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I put a deposit down earlier this year on one and will be spec'ing one out this year, hopefully. Can't wait! One fully electric and one fully gasoline (Lotus). Great combo right?!

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post #5 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 09:46 AM
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Vogue today to save the planet, so expect more electrics from everybody....sell your stock in Petrol industries
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post #6 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 02:06 PM
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We really considered it, but starting at $90k, we feel like of priced out - at $70k they probably would have had a sale, but $90k starting means easily over $100 with any options (which feels like way too much to spend on a daily driver, especially given my experiences with uninsured drivers in our area) so we dropped our place in line. We already have a Model S (and all the ridiculous issues that come with it) and were hoping for a more reliable option.

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One hopes the doors don't freeze shut on it in cold, wet weather like an actual Model S (designed in Silicon Valley by optimists).
We have this exact problem and were basically told that everything was working as designed. Among some other issues we had with service, they've pretty much lost our business.

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post #7 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-19-2019, 06:56 AM
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Vogue today to save the planet, so expect more electrics from everybody....sell your stock in Petrol industries
Four things:
1. Market penetration. EVs are the new hotness, but right now your choices for an EV under $40k are things like a Chevy Spark, a Nissan Leaf, or a stripper Tesla mod 3 - perfectly adequate city commute cars, but not yet at the universal cost/value price point to replace a lot of people's daily driver in the US. US household median income last year was $62k. That means that lots of people are going to be driving cheap, used 10+ year old, ICE cars for another decade. Porsche, Lotus, et al are all selling EVs to the 0.1%, which is a great way to get a halo and good money, but not moving the needle for Wal-Mart shoppers at all.

2. where do you think the electricity is coming from to charge all these EVs? If you have a plug in at work, you can theoretically charge during the day with a photovoltaic farm, but far and away the most common use case is charge at night and drive during the day. Tesla's solution is a second battery pack mounted in your garage hooked to your PV array, but a PowerWall isn't exactly cheap, and we're talking about mass adoption here. Utilities will raise night time power rates as necessary to support the required generation capacity if it goes significantly above baseline.

3. To paraphrase a Saudi prince, the stone age did not end for a lack of stone, and the oil age will not end for a lack of oil. EVs need lubricants. The power systems that feed them will need lubricants and fuels.

4. Regulatory/economic capture. The energy extraction companies are mostly 'too big to fail' as Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon show. They can buy themselves out of most any economic hazard either by tilting the regulatory playing field against disruption or by buying the disruptor and making it part of their bottom line. I wouldn't count any of them out - they're all looking ahead and have plenty of cash flow and war chest to speculatively buy into the future.
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post #8 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-19-2019, 11:53 AM
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Holding things like XON and compounding the dividend [DRIP] is not a bad "hold" strategy....but those $ can do better elsewhere
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post #9 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-19-2019, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by steelypip View Post
Four things:
1. Market penetration. EVs are the new hotness, but right now your choices for an EV under $40k are things like a Chevy Spark, a Nissan Leaf, or a stripper Tesla mod 3 - perfectly adequate city commute cars, but not yet at the universal cost/value price point to replace a lot of people's daily driver in the US. US household median income last year was $62k. That means that lots of people are going to be driving cheap, used 10+ year old, ICE cars for another decade. Porsche, Lotus, et al are all selling EVs to the 0.1%, which is a great way to get a halo and good money, but not moving the needle for Wal-Mart shoppers at all.

2. where do you think the electricity is coming from to charge all these EVs? If you have a plug in at work, you can theoretically charge during the day with a photovoltaic farm, but far and away the most common use case is charge at night and drive during the day. Tesla's solution is a second battery pack mounted in your garage hooked to your PV array, but a PowerWall isn't exactly cheap, and we're talking about mass adoption here. Utilities will raise night time power rates as necessary to support the required generation capacity if it goes significantly above baseline.

3. To paraphrase a Saudi prince, the stone age did not end for a lack of stone, and the oil age will not end for a lack of oil. EVs need lubricants. The power systems that feed them will need lubricants and fuels.

4. Regulatory/economic capture. The energy extraction companies are mostly 'too big to fail' as Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon show. They can buy themselves out of most any economic hazard either by tilting the regulatory playing field against disruption or by buying the disruptor and making it part of their bottom line. I wouldn't count any of them out - they're all looking ahead and have plenty of cash flow and war chest to speculatively buy into the future.
To be fair, there are a few counterpoints to these arguments:

1. We agree that most buyers will be purchasing used ICE vehicles for quite a while. Most of the infrastructure simply isn't where it needs to be for mass adoption. That said, it is notable that average new car transaction prices eclipsed $36k in March 2019 (albeit mostly driven by high-priced SUVs and trucks), which is essentially the $35k goal/benchmark price that most automakers have set as "affordable" for a 200-mile EV. Also, lots of 80-mile EVs sit on the used market at $5-7k, which I'd argue is reasonable for a large number of people who want a commuter car with caveats. For the slice of consumers who are homeowners and can support a second family car, it's not an utterly terrible option (though admittedly this is not a huge portion of the market).

2. As stated before, we agree that the infrastruture isn't really there yet for mass adoption, but even at daytime rates, charging an EV can be cost-competitive with gas in some states. It should be noted that quite a lot of the daytime peak power is generated via NatGas, which is often produced as part of hydraulic fracturing.

4. I would argue that the more salient point here is that while the pure extraction companies may see long term strategic threats, the majors (e.g. BP, XOM, CVX, COP) have been diversifying their energy portfolios for years which is why they are energy companies and not oil companies, despite oil being their primary product. For example, Texaco (bought by Chevron) owns NiMH battery patents that led to them suing (and settling with) Panasonic over the Prius batteries.

Upon re-reading some of this, it comes off as being kind of condescending, and I hope you'll forgive that. I really am just trying to explain my argument.

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post #10 of 10 (permalink) Old 07-21-2019, 03:04 PM
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Upon re-reading some of this, it comes off as being kind of condescending, and I hope you'll forgive that. I really am just trying to explain my argument.
Your points were well made and I think we mostly agree on them. Anybody who requests forgiveness for seeming condescending in the post almost certainly is not guilty of the offense. In any case, no forgiveness is required.
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