[smura]

Here's a conversation I had with my dealer, Park Place in Bellevue, WA this afternoon:

Q: do you know what your allocation will be?
A: no information yet, but we expect 50 cars the first year
Q: I'm #32, so that means I'll get my car sometime around August?
A: That sounds about right. we don't know for sure but Aug would be my guess
Q: any more info from lotus?
A: we're supposed to get color chips, brochures, etc. but probably not until after the official launch in LA
Q: when would you be finalizing orders for deposit holders?
A: probably in feb
Q: what does #32 mean to me. what happens if 10 bill gates come in and ask for a car. do I get screwed?
A: I give you my word that we will honor the list. you were smart to have a deposit down for a year and I'm not going to make you wait any longer because someone else wants to step in line. That being said, we have had 3 drop off the list in front of you and we will not move you up. we reserve the right to sell those spots for more than MSRP buy you are guaranteed msrp.

It was very reassuring and made me feel good. Very honest conversation and response from the dealer.

 

[Derek]

Here's a conversation I had with my dealer, Park Place in Bellevue, WA this afternoon:

Q: do you know what your allocation will be?
A: no information yet, but we expect 50 cars the first year
Q: I'm #32, so that means I'll get my car sometime around August?
A: That sounds about right. we don't know for sure but Aug would be my guess

It would appear your delivery date is a little optimistic. There are twelve months in a year (50/12=4.16) that means they will get about 4 cars per month. Given that you are #32 (32/4.16=7.69) it will take an additional 7.69 months from when the cars hit shore for you to get your car. I would figure on a November delivery date. This is a best-case scenario given the fact that it does not take into account delays in customs or dealer demo cars. Your position is also not helped by the fact that your dealer will not bump you up as other drop off the list.


Not what you wanna hear I'm sure, but there is no arguing with the numbers.

Oh well better late than never

 

[smura]

Only problem is that you make a big assumption that the cars will be delivered evenly throughout the year.

I'm not ready to make that assumption yet, because there hasn't even been an official allocation given to my dealer.

 

[meat]

I would assume cars will be delivered evenly throughout the year. Lotus has a workforce to keep busy so you wouldn't want them to produce all the cars in a short period and then be idle or layed off.

 

[L8BRAKR]

Re: Re: Allocation and other dirty words

there is no arguing with the numbers.

What if the year is only 8 months long? The dealer is quoting the number of cars he will get for 2004 is 50. Since they know they won't be getting any cars until at least the middle of April that leaves about 8 months to get 50 cars. At 6.25 cars a month average it will only take him 5.12 months till his car arrives. Late August is not out of the question just a little optimistic. And if they are doing batches of cars all projection will be out the window.

 

[meat]

I would think that Lotus will try to get back on the regular schedule of releasing the new model year in Sept and Oct. So the first year may be up to 16 months long - so that is 187 cars per month. Let's say that Lotus has plans for 50 dealers total - that would be 3.75 cars per month per dealer.

If you are 35 on the list that would put delivery at around February, 2005.

I also don't think they will be delivering cars in April. May or June will probably be realistic.

 

[LarryB]

Doing batches of cars is more in terms of assembly (colors, options). There is sure to be some ramp up time for the line. Sounds like, with first orders going in Dec, early Jan and first shipment not going out till April, they most likely will start the line in March.

Keep in mind the 2500-3000 is for a year. Model year these are going to be '05, so if it runs till Oct '05 it'll be a good 17 month, so we can add 50% to the yearly totals. One thing I've asked Lotus (on the "official" website). Is the production # for model or calendar year?, didn't get a answer... if it's model the monthly totals are going to be much lower then we think, don't' think that's the case. Lotus as already said they can go to a double shifts and make 10,000 Elise worldwide, if that happens the people a little futher back in line wouldn't have to wait too long.

 

[meat]

Let's keep in mind that the first cars running on that 2nd shift will cost alot of money. Until they are able to fill that 2nd shift with full production I doubt they would offer any cars over 1st shift production for sale.

My $.02

 

[LarryB]

Agree with you meat, doubt they would ramp up a second line for a good 3-4 months into production. They really need to get the revenue flowing first. With deposit already down with most dealers for a full years production and the word now going out to the general public, if the wait starts getting out over a year Lotus will start to lose sales, so they may take the *risk* sooner then later.

 

[meat]

I doubt they will go over the 3000 number. If they do they close the window on future sales. Cars like this will only sell so many and they need to keep the American market active for several years until the Espirit replacement can get here, etc. Just like in Europe - it took about 4 years for demand to get soft, figure about the same here.

 

[GeorgeH]

Smura, thanks for the info. I'm number 18 at Parc Place, glad to hear they are sticking with their list order & the MSRP commitment.

BTW, Clyde told me earlier this year (much earlier) that Lotus was *considering* shipping 6 cars per month to a "typical" dealer. The reason for this was because they can fit precisely 6 cars in a shipping container. If that still is true (and I have no idea if it is) and given that 2004 is a "8 Month" year with a May first ship date, that would work out to about 50 cars for 2004.

George

 

[LarryB]

Yeah, its a tough call trying to guess what Lotus will do (doubt they know at this point). If it's a home run in the states, they may take the chance of bumping production up in the first year. The increased volume will help fund the next gen Esprit and maybe something between it and the Elise. Lotus long terms plan is to have the next Esprit out in about 4 years. Also the Fed Elise we're getting is basically a update of the S2, which is already several years into it's life cycle. Most likely the next gen Elise will be here around '09. They could a few years down the line, bring over the Exige or other variation of the Elise, squeeze in a small v-6, etc. to keep the line fresh.

On the production run, thinking a year means 12 months reguardless if it starts in Jan or May. So May 04 to May 05 we'll see around 3000 of the Elise's.

 

[smura]

George, you wouldn't want to switch deposits with me, would you?

 

[GeorgeH]

And give up a summer of motoring? No chance.

BTW, who have you been talking too? I've been working with Tim Mills, who took my deposit back in Feb. 2002.

George

 

[MotorCade]

I'll switch spots with ya... but only under the condition that you pay for my Elise when it comes in later. Offer stands for anyone who REALLY wants to move up. I'm number 6 in Austin.


Cade

 

[smura]

Tim Mills also, but I talked to the manager yesterday because I'd seen some conflicting info coming from Tim.

#32, deposit down Nov 02. They're up to 47 as of yesterday

 

[jml1952]

I believe that Lotus got a waiver for not having bumpers, and possibly for the headlights as well. I think that this limits the number of cars, but I don't know what that limit might be.

Also, it's almost a certainty that each dealer will not get the same allocation. There is always a reward to those dealers that have had strong performance in the past.

Finally, I hesitate to mention this, but I was offered the opportunity to buy the #2 slot from a depositor. All he wants is to make a $5000 to $8000 profit! I told him that he was crazy, but perhaps there will be someone with more money than brains that will take him up on it. Not me! Personally, I deplore scalping, although I have bought a few rock concert tickets for a "reasonable" premium to get good seats.

 

[Z0650TH]

My dealer told me that the car will be an '04 not an '05. Don't know if this is true but if it is, than the first model year could very well be a short one of about 7 months (figuring that April will be the first month of delivery and the model year goes to October).

That would result in about 430 cars per month across about 50 deales which would be about 8-9 cars per dealer per month for the first "short" model year.

I am number 14 on my list would could get me the car in month 2.

 

[zvezdah1]

Zo650th<
I'm pretty sure all the waivers, documentation done for the car are for 05 model year. Don't think they'll be an 04 US car.
Chris

 

[Derek]

My dealer told me that the car will be an '04 not an '05. Don't know if this is true but if it is, than the first model year could very well be a short one of about 7 months (figuring that April will be the first month of delivery and the model year goes to October).

That would result in about 430 cars per month across about 50 deales which would be about 8-9 cars per dealer per month for the first "short" model year.

I am number 14 on my list would could get me the car in month 2.

Wildly optimistic, but incorrect nonetheless. Clyde has already confirmed that the car will come out in 2004, but be a 2005 model.

http://lotus.roadfly.org/lotus/forums/elise/forum.php?postid=4036171&page=1

The cold truth is, some of us will have our cars in time for next summer and some of us won’t. If you have not yet put down a deposit it is likely you will not get your car in time. The longer you wait, the longer you wait. Those who knew about the car early shall be rewarded with an earlier delivery date. However, rest assured that many of the early adopters have been waiting for as long as 2 years already.