[Adam P]

Now that the allocations are set, I would expect demand and inital price to go through the ROOF! I have had many people tell me on this board and others that people who purchase their car only with intentions to sell it soon there after are going to take a large loss, I think they were wrong.

Sure, we have seen that people have dropped off the lists for things like no LSD, too long of a wait, not wanting to put there money into a non-refundable senario, etc.... But like it or not, DEMAND is giong to be real high for those first 3-6 months, thus resale price will be high as well. We all (except aparently those few) expected to see a pretty fast delivery time, like say less then 6 months from the first cars ariving, knowing that this will not be the case and some will have to almost wait a year, I think some of those people will go out and spend an extra few K on a car that is already here.

Be more prepaired for those who are going to skalp there positions, or sell there car soon after getting it, they are going to be all over the place. Who is to blame, no one really.

Adamp

 

[Derek]

Now that the allocations are set, I would expect demand and inital price to go through the ROOF! I have had many people tell me on this board and others that people who purchase their car only with intentions to sell it soon there after are going to take a large loss, I think they were wrong.

Sure, we have seen that people have dropped off the lists for things like no LSD, too long of a wait, not wanting to put there money into a non-refundable senario, etc.... But like it or not, DEMAND is giong to be real high for those first 3-6 months, thus resale price will be high as well. We all (except aparently those few) expected to see a pretty fast delivery time, like say less then 6 months from the first cars ariving, knowing that this will not be the case and some will have to almost wait a year, I think some of those people will go out and spend an extra few K on a car that is already here.

Be more prepaired for those who are going to skalp there positions, or sell there car soon after getting it, they are going to be all over the place. Who is to blame, no one really.

Adamp

As I have said in the past, I think this will be the case. It has happened to virtually every hot car that I can think of and the Elise will be no different.

 

[grudkin]

As a fan of the car and of Lotus, I hope you are right

I'm not so sure. There will surely be a few people willing to pony up big dollars, but I think these numbers are small. At this point, buying an Elise for 'speculation' with the intent to sell for profit is not a sure thing

That said, if the price did go 'through the roof,' I would flip mine and buy one used in a year or two once the scene cools off. I just don't see it happening

At 2500 plus cars a year, the Elise is not going to be 'rare.' Though demand from select enthusiasts is high, if priced any higher there are a lot of very attractive alternatives. They may not be alternatives to those on this board, but to the more typical American 'car guy' ...

The bigger question is how the Elise will sell once initial demand is filled -- 2006 and beyond. I hope demand remains high -- would love a high resale to finance that Exige...

 

[Modern Wedgie]

I hope demand remains high -- would love a high resale to finance that Exige...

My thoughts exactly!

 

[Adam P]

As a fan of the car and of Lotus, I hope you are right

I'm not so sure. There will surely be a few people willing to pony up big dollars, but I think these numbers are small. At this point, buying an Elise for 'speculation' with the intent to sell for profit is not a sure thing

That said, if the price did go 'through the roof,' I would flip mine and buy one used in a year or two once the scene cools off. I just don't see it happening

At 2500 plus cars a year, the Elise is not going to be 'rare.' Though demand from select enthusiasts is high, if priced any higher there are a lot of very attractive alternatives. They may not be alternatives to those on this board, but to the more typical American 'car guy' ...

The bigger question is how the Elise will sell once initial demand is filled -- 2006 and beyond. I hope demand remains high -- would love a high resale to finance that Exige...

Just a note, at 300 or less cars for the first few months, Demand will be very hight initally!

AdamP

 

[smoseley]

Demand is already very high... that doesn't mean you're gonna get people paying 60k for a car with a Toyota powerplant. No way. Speculate all you like, I just don't see it happening except in the rare case of super-rich wanting super-rare super-fast. Of course, they'll take a 20k loss when they sell it 4 months later, but they don't care... 5k a month is pocket change.

PS - if you want my basis... well, just look at the S1 elise... how many $60k S1's with honda conversions do you see running around?

 

[agent.5]

The problem is that you have to take delivery before you can flip. So, right off the bet you are selling a used car and you have to add almost 10% to your price (tax, license, etc) just to break even. Plus you need to insure the car between the time you receive the vehicle and you sell it.

I just don't think the odd of making any money is that good.

 

[zvezdah1]

Real world, aside from a handful of well-heeled who have to be the first on the block with one, I suspect, best case scenario is the cars don't depreciate as badly as ALL sports cars do, at least for a bit!
Chris

 

[Modern Wedgie]

Demand is already very high... that doesn't mean you're gonna get people paying 60k for a car with a Toyota powerplant. No way. Speculate all you like, I just don't see it happening except in the rare case of super-rich wanting super-rare super-fast. Of course, they'll take a 20k loss when they sell it 4 months later, but they don't care... 5k a month is pocket change.

PS - if you want my basis... well, just look at the S1 elise... how many $60k S1's with honda conversions do you see running around?

I think one of the major reasons people didnt by the honda mod was not because of its price, but because it was a non-production car and the license/registration was kinda sketchy!

The elise IS a production car, in limited numbers. I bet that people will be willing to spend 60K on one, atleast within the first year.

 

[atyclb]

What is Gonzaba's allocation through August?

 

[agent.5]

I bet that people will be willing to spend 60K on one, atleast within the first year

I am sure a few are, but most will not.

 

[Adam P]

What is Gonzaba's allocation through August?

I wish I knew. I sent George Gonzaba an email this morning, however he has yet to respond. I would call, but I really dont want to put him on the spot where he would need to BS me, which I dont really think he would lie to me, but he will respond when he wants to. All I asked him was, knowing that the allocations were out to all the dealers, and knowing that some dealers are getting as few as 3 cars per month, does this mean I wont get my car until late aug.? Ill post when he emails me back.

AdamP

 

[Derek]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Elise selling for $80k early on. Regardless of how rare you believe the Liz will or will not be, it will be a lot rarer than a Cadillac. Have we forgotten the lesson of the CTVS-V

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=43903&item=2454038967

I say the Liz might even go higher than $80k.

 

[Sownman]

I'm sure there will be cases of people flipping cars. I think generally we loonies around here place an excess importance and value on this car. I really think the vast majority of America has no interest in ANY two seat car. Fewer still have any interest
in one thats difficult to enter and exit, has no luxury features at
all, and two guys seated side by side touch shoulders.

Frankly guys, not many people willing to spend $40K for such a vehicle, let alone $80K. I think the production of just over 2000 a year is about right. One of the two dealers where I placed deposits that REFUSED to agree to MSRP at time of my deposit has now done just that MSRP at Silver Star in Los Angeles.

Steve

 

[ex-M3]

Elise sales followed a parabola in Europe (per Alistair Clement's book sales were 432, 2143, 3033, 3180, 2639, and 1984 in 1996-2001 and per Lotus application for waivers they say the produced 3335, 2569, 2993, 5181 and 4810 - probably including VX220 and Speedsters, in 1998-2002). They increased for a couple of years and then the market essentially saturated. Its pretty clear there is a pent up demand for this car, but amongst a pretty small group.

This is a funny little car that appeals only to a small group of crazies. Most people will see it and think who would be crazy enough to spend even $40K on this minimal machine. Of course we know who those crazies are

Since supply will meet demand in a relatively short period of time (1-2 years), there will be no long term value to paying over list for the car. This is not the case with certain Porsches et. al where supply will never equal demand. Remember that Ferrari intentionally limits production to keep them desireable.

In my opinion the bottom line is there may be a short window of opportunity where a seller may be able to find a buyer at over list, but I bet if many speculators buy these cars they will lose money. I wouldn't call this a "blue chip" investment.

 

[zcar222]

Most of you seem to be forgetting... This is the land of the B L I N G. I would say 1 out of 100 people will know what this car even IS after its release. I will also bet people will continue to be clueless for a while. When clueless people with money see a sharp looking car - they will want it. And when they find out they can't have it because of the rediculously long waiting lists, they WILL pay more money for the car. I dont know how many people would spend $80k on this car... But I do know that someone will. There will be the rich guys who will blow the cash just to get it first. Now $60k... I expect to see quite a few go for that tag. Sound absolutely rediculous for someone to spend 60k on a car that has a 4 banger toyo in it? Absolutely. Will it happen? Definitely. Thats just the way the American market works. Remember that the FordGT went for 400k at an early auction - and now it can be had for $150k. (yes 150k - a friend of mine is paying that for it basically as I type) I wouldn't expect the elise to do anything different.

-Whit

 

[agent.5]

But you are running into the price territory of
Ferrari Dino 246 GTS
Ferrari 512M
a bunch of Porsches.
the other Lotus

Don't you think the bling bling crowd will buy those before the tiny Lotus?

Most of you seem to be forgetting... This is the land of the B L I N G. I would say 1 out of 100 people will know what this car even IS after its release. I will also bet people will continue to be clueless for a while. When clueless people with money see a sharp looking car - they will want it. And when they find out they can't have it because of the rediculously long waiting lists, they WILL pay more money for the car. I dont know how many people would spend $80k on this car... But I do know that someone will. There will be the rich guys who will blow the cash just to get it first. Now $60k... I expect to see quite a few go for that tag. Sound absolutely rediculous for someone to spend 60k on a car that has a 4 banger toyo in it? Absolutely. Will it happen? Definitely. Thats just the way the American market works. Remember that the FordGT went for 400k at an early auction - and now it can be had for $150k. (yes 150k - a friend of mine is paying that for it basically as I type) I wouldn't expect the elise to do anything different.

-Whit

 

[Hans Stuck]

that doesn't mean you're gonna get people paying 60k for a car with a Toyota powerplant. No way.

Yeah -- they call those by another name ..... LEXUS!

 

[etypeiii]

Regarding alternatives (old Ferraris, Porsches, etc.):

The "bling-bling" crowd won't be buying these. Because if that's what they wanted, they already would have them.

For that crowd, purchasing an older model just means you don't have the money to buy a new one. And then there is the maintenance and upkeep. Plus, some of those cars (like the older Ferraris) are probably less refined and practical day to day than the S2 Elise, believe it or not. Those buyers want "new."

As for the long term values? The percentage of hardcore drivers is smaller than in Europe, but this is a huge market. And since we're not talking Mini or PT Cruiser here, with tens of thousands a year produced, this also compensates somewhat.

It all will depend on the final reviews. If magazines gush all over the Elise, and it proves to be more practical than the common perception, it will stay high in resale value for at least a year. Evo magazine (June 2002) thought the Euro 111S could compete with a Boxster in terms of refinement and comfort, such that they were legitmate competitors, and had better resale value as well. If the US model is even better than that, then I don't see why it won't be a prized vehicle for a while.




DLY

 

[agent.5]

I don't feel like debating. If someone actually offer you $80K for an Elise, do yourself and your retirement a favor, SELL and then put your name on the list for another one.