[Randy Chase]

Curious. There was a number quoted a while back from some dealer expecting that maybe 10% of the people on the waiting list would drop out.

Some reports have me wondering if that percentage is actually higher. Is the Elise the kind of a car that causes people to jump on the bandwagon?

It's dead sexy. I think this means people made decisions, a lot differently than if they decided to buy a utility truck.

It was going to be a long while before it came. People had time to either get the money... or something would happen...

The waiting lists were long and getting longer. Fear of being locked out motivated people to jump on the list.

Most dealers took refundable deposits, so it was not much of a gamble.

The actual price is probably higher than most people expected from the early reports of $38,500 fully loaded except hard top. Now, with paint and touring...you are in the mid 40s.

It is a niche car. Not easy to get in. Not practical for many people. Harsher ride. Concern over being run over by larger vehicles. Concern over repairs and servicing. Perhaps some realities filtered in once the orders were being asked for?

Images and rumors or future cars like the Exige. Perhaps some are thinking.. wait for the Exige?

Orders being taken earlier than many people expected...for cars that will probably not be here until summer. No chance to check out cars that were in the first batch. No chance to read reports of the first owners. Many on the list down in the 30s expected to be able to order with more information.

LSD and competition. Those that want to order with LSD from Lotus have to wait. Those that aren't sure about the competitiveness of the car in SCCA autocross maybe want to wait to see how the early drivers do.

Any of these things..or combinations of them... are causing people to drop off the list.... or drop down the list to a later spot.

So... I am curious as to the real drop out/drop rate is.

Just wondering.

 

[Donovan]

I am kind of on the fence right now. I am seriously thinking about waiting for an Exige. I placed a deposit for one and am going to work out a way with my dealer to stay on the list, just drop down lower. So if no word on the Exige over the next 6 months I can still get one of the first 2500 or so Elises.

 

[CDubYa]

Drop Out Rate

I've been quoted "mid-20's" by Silicon Valley from the time of my deposit 9 months ago. When the call from Graham came yesterday I was happily surprised and it looks like I've dropped down into the "teens".

I'm sure much of your conjecturing is right on. Many may not have the funds when it comes time to lay it on the table and others are probably second guessing the practicality/spartan nature of this machine.

Having the car for most of the summer - being from the rainy "northwet" - will be a great added bonus.

By the way - I ordered my car yesterday and at 1850 PST I was made a Grandpa by my daughter-in-law. Maya Grace, 7 pounds - beautiful and perfect - made it a double milestone day!

 

[NMRJock]

I read a review of the S1 during my freshman year of college ('96) and told everyone in the lounge that would listen that I would own that car when it came to the states. The article alluded to a '98 or '99 model (if I recall) and projected a price of around $30k usd. I still have that magazine somewhere. So while I've not been on the waiting list for that long, I've been committed to this car for years.

I'll keep my word. I will own this car.

Lets not forget that many people, for whatever reason, placed multiple deposits with no intention of purchasing multiple cars. They will add a lot to the dropout rate.

 

[grudkin]

I think you are correct, Randy.

Drop out rates may well be above 10%. We will see shortly

I also think that there will be a fair number of cars which are sold within a year or two, once the 'reality' of the car overtakes the fantasy. It's one thing to sit in the car at a show and drool for five minutes, and another to drive it on a regular basis on imperfect roads. Some will be fine with it, but a fair number will not be.

It's for just that reason that I am on the fence. Might be able to snag one in a year or two at a nice discount. Also, perhaps the exige will be coming by then, which I would prefer. Still, having waited so long, I will likely go for it. Common sense tells me to wait, but when was the last time logic entered into buying a sports car? Passion has its price

 

[LarryB]

It's pretty much all the factors you've listed Randy. For most of last month I was pretty sure I'd drop out. Happy with the MR2, with relative low miles, that I've modded to the level I was after. Adding up a a out the door price of upper $40k's didn't help. The '05 Legacy 2.5GT was very tempting as a third car (and a good $14k cheaper). In the end put the order in... still have to take delivery.


CDubYa- congratulations, first one?

 

[rtking]

You're right, Randy... people earlier on the wait list will not have a chance to see the car and choose other options that may be available later in the build cycle.

I had the chance to jump to Desert European (from Newport European) and get a significantly better wait-list position than the #43 position I have now. But I chose to wait at Newport because:

1) I would have an opportunity to drive the demo car
2) I would be able to actually see the various colors on the Elise
3) Build quality may improve a little as more cars are built
4) An anticipated delivery date of November gives me time to save enough money to pay-off the Elise in cash (or pay-off other bills and buy the Elise using a home equity line of credit.)
5) It gives me enough time to find other storage space for my cars so I can park the Elise in my townhouse's garage.

I am 90% certain that I won't drop-off the list... but that 10% doubt remains mainly due to the nature of my employment. (I'm self employed and you never know when your contract might come to an end...)

Bob

 

[Allan Gibbs]

Interesting thought. Say a person drops out from the list pre-order, what happens to that spot? Does everyone else move up or does the dealer get that spot?

Say a person drops out after making an order, does the deal just take the delivery of that car and sell it for whatever the market is worth (ie: over MSPR?)

Personally, I'd rather the dealer make extra profit from people who dropped off the list, rather than try to charger faithful waiters over MSRP.

Based on what I've seen on the board, I haven't heard anyone say, "my dealer called and said I've been bumped up, since number X dropped out."

 

[NMRJock]

Based on what I've seen on the board, I haven't heard anyone say, "my dealer called and said I've been bumped up, since number X dropped out."

Some have said almost exactly that, though I don't have any links to posts handy. FWIW I haven't been told that I've moved up the queue.

 

[James A]

I think the numbers who drop off the list will be high and I think the number of people who sell the car within a year of buying will be high. As the ad says this ain't your father's Oldsmobile. I just don't see this car having wide spread appear in the US of A. I say the USA market will be smaller than the UK, a lot more people "get it" there than here.

 

[BraFish]

Sigh

Sigh.

I just went in today and bumped myself farther down the list.
I had to fall back because I can't take delivery (and get a loan) for the car until the house that I'm building is complete. I just can't take the risk of the added debt screwing up my home financing when I go to the house closing (probably Sept). Neil and Andrew at Autostrada were very accommodating.

So now instead of getting our cars at the same time (my twin brother was on the list at the same place I was), I'm going to have to wait possibly an extra 4 months. Blah.

On the bright side I've now got a "Colour Chart" so I've got something to keep my company. At least I can still get a ride in one while I'm waiting for mine! It wouldn't do me much good anyway since I'm parking outside until the new house is complete. It just sucks to be so close and not be able to go through with it.

 

[nickt]

I was also called by Graham from Los Gatos for my order (I was "30 something"). I asked how many people declined to place their order after he'd called them, he said nobody on his list, one person on the other LG salesperson's list. Didn't ask how many orders he was taking.

Most popular colour: Saffron.

He also said the order was going in to Lotus, not being taken in anticipation of that. 3-4 months to delivery.

 

[maxxfish]

I've been racking my brain over this one every night; should the possibility of buying one of the best sports cars in the world be so stressful?!!! I've only had my MR-2 Spyder for about ten months (first car I've ever owned, always had SUV's), and I'm beginning to wonder whether the additional $$$ for the Elise will really be worth it. It's not that I don't have the $$$ it's whether I can justify it. I'm still enjoying the newness of owning a car, let alone a great handling car (the MR-2) and am still in the novice class (4 events) in the autocrossing world. I'm in the mid-40's in line at Criswell, and if I have to wait that long, maybe it's worth it for me to wait another year and buy one used (and hopefully discounted after some mid-life crisis old-gummer realizes it's not as comfortable as his former Lexus SC). Tough call...

 

[Biomax]

randy -

just a note - I went up from 17/18 to #12 at Star.

Robert

 

[Derek]

I'm in the mid-40's in line at Criswell, and if I have to wait that long, maybe it's worth it for me to wait another year and buy one used (and hopefully discounted after some mid-life crisis old-gummer realizes it's not as comfortable as his former Lexus SC). Tough call...

I drove a brand new SC430. The ride was horrible and the handling was awful. It was very luxurious but it neither handles like a sports car or rides like a Benz.

 

[shinoo]

I think there will be more than 10% drop out. I believe the initial dropped orders will be absorbed by the interest generated by the first real car mag reviews and when the cars actually hit the road. There are plenty of people who can afford this car that don't even know it is coming. Once these folks start seeing them on the road/track, they will likely want to purchase.

LCU should be able to sell the first couple of years worth of cars thanks to the pent-up demand. After the pent-up demand is satiated, the real demand may be actually less than 2500/yr. So new products will be needed like the Exige/Esprit/M260/etc to keep demand up.

 

[zvezdah1]

shinoo,
I don't think LCU is planning to build at that rate past the first year or two or until demand flags, by that time, possibly will be a redesigned elise and an esprit replacement and what else??

Robert you owe me and my friend for moving up two slots, I was number 8 and he was 11 at Star I believe! Now #2 at LOA!

Chris
89 days to go.................................

 

[hermanslotus]

Does anyone really know how many Elise's Lotus Cars USA plans on importing for model year 2005?. I hear 2,200 and also 2,500 now I hear close to 3,000. I don't know what to believe???


Mitch

 

[LarryB]

Think production wise there limited to around 2400 per year for a single shift. If your talking model year, with this being a '05 with delivery in May/ June of '04 it would be around 3000. Suppose this can vary a bit depending on what there plan is VS how many they can produce, plus there approach to meeting high demand.

 

[BrokenR1]

I checked in with Lotus of Atlanta and Chris told me only a couple people had dropped off so far, and that they hadn't decided what to do with those slots yet. On one hand I hope they slide me up, and on the other I could use the time to get settled down because of starting a new job and moving.