june '05 to fall '05 assuming 10 per or 8 per
Guess my Elise Arrival Date for #102 on list
Would anyone care to enterntain me and give me thier guess as to when my Elise would arrive if I am number 102 on the list at Criswell in MD?
I'm think that if the first cars will not be arrive until may, then it will not be my turn until about 9 months from then which will be in Feb of 2005.
I know that they say that the rate will be 6-8 cars per month per dealer but I'm saying only 9 months because I believe that about 30 or so people will drop from the list and I also believe that my dealer will achieve the 8 cars per month.
What do you guys/girls think?
I'm think that if the first cars will not be arrive until may, then it will not be my turn until about 9 months from then which will be in Feb of 2005.
I know that they say that the rate will be 6-8 cars per month per dealer but I'm saying only 9 months because I believe that about 30 or so people will drop from the list and I also believe that my dealer will achieve the 8 cars per month.
What do you guys/girls think?
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Your guess is probably as good as it gets at this moment, there are just too many unknowns to come up with anything precise. Sometime in spring '05 sounds reasonable. But if lots of people drop off the list, or they give more cars to dealers with long lists, who knows...
don't expect dealers to move you up if someone drops out. they will, most certainly, attempt to get market value
for those vehicles and that will be much higher than regular msrp. since your reserved spot isn't really affected, there
is nothing wrong with them doing this.
for those vehicles and that will be much higher than regular msrp. since your reserved spot isn't really affected, there
is nothing wrong with them doing this.
I am #63 at Criswell. They told me November '05. As much as I want the car ASAP, it gives me time to save up a little. I would love to have it for this summer though.
Odog, what was your previous number? I am lower than you. My previous number was in the mid 80's. I know at least 9 people dropped off the list? When did you get an update?
I got that number when I put down my deposit back in November. Maybe I should call them and see if there has been any changes.
I put my deposit down at the end of October and am in the mid 80's. So, now I am in the mid 70's.
What are anticipated sales of the federalized Elise? If 3000 a year, then less than 100 per dealer per year, correct?
Between 6 and 8 per dealer puts it at 84 per dealer a year. If there are 38 dealers (right?) then this puts it spot-on to the 3000 a year estimate. Since the car is already in production (there's no big tooling change needed), it's safe to expect that once they start rolling in they'll keep coming at the same rate, rather than starting at a trickle and then gushing in at a flood later on.
Between 6 and 8 per dealer puts it at 84 per dealer a year. If there are 38 dealers (right?) then this puts it spot-on to the 3000 a year estimate. Since the car is already in production (there's no big tooling change needed), it's safe to expect that once they start rolling in they'll keep coming at the same rate, rather than starting at a trickle and then gushing in at a flood later on.
We wish!!rob said:What are anticipated sales of the federalized Elise? If 3000 a year, then less than 100 per dealer per year, correct?
Between 6 and 8 per dealer puts it at 84 per dealer a year. If there are 38 dealers (right?) then this puts it spot-on to the 3000 a year estimate. Since the car is already in production (there's no big tooling change needed), it's safe to expect that once they start rolling in they'll keep coming at the same rate, rather than starting at a trickle and then gushing in at a flood later on.
The number mentioned at the LA Auto Show by the Lotus guys is 2300 during the first fiscal year, which is more like 60 per dealer (if they all get equal allocations, which they almost certainly will not according to what I have been told). Also, the Lotus guys indicated that production will be slower during the start-up (perhaps a couple of months??), because there are changes needed for a new production line dedicated to the US cars and it will time to work out the kinks, then they will ramp up to whatever the full production rate will be. They also have no plans to work double or triple shifts to increase production.
For agrguments sake let's say Criswell gets 50 cars this year, 30 people dropping off the list is a bit optimistic on your part I think, I'll say 10. If they deliver cars at the rate of 8 per month you would recieve a car June/July '05. What do I get if I win?
Edited cause I forgot the year
Edited cause I forgot the year
My guess, Sept. at latest, by way how many on the list? Thanks.
When do ya'll think delivery will come for me if i am #55 at overseas in dallas, Tx. I was guessing around january 05.
You, my son, will be..............................................March 2005ulmpharmd said:When do ya'll think delivery will come for me if i am #55 at overseas in dallas, Tx. I was guessing around january 05.
Did it again
I posted this to another thread, so sorry for the repost. I created an Excel spreadsheet that estimates your delivery date. It takes several factors into account, including how quickly the factory ramps production.
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I think that 2400 is the official Lotus production goal for 2004. Mind you that a car that is sold in America in May probably starts the production process right around... Now. Also, it is safe to assume that Lotus can produce cars beyond their goal.
The Lotus line appears to have capacity for about 3000 cars on a single shift. I do not know if this accounts for Vauxhall VX220 and Opel Speedster capacity or not. Apparently one of the reasons the Elise did not come to the U.S. until now is because Lotus was working on those projects instead of bringing the Elise to the U.S. (bear in mind that direct sales of cars is actually only a minority percentage of Lotus revenues).
In all likelihood, the American cars require an extra shift at the Lotus plant. If a second shift doubles capacity and the current non-US production requirements are 2000 cars a year, then there is room for 3000 or more cars for the US market.
Of course these are all assumptions, based primarily on data in Alastair Clements' book 'Elise - Rebirth of the True Lotus.'
I think Lotus can pump out more cars than the actual production estimates but I don't think they can pump out a huge number beyond the production estimates. Obviously their manufacturing process is a lot different than, say, the process for a Mazda Miata - it takes longer, is more labor intensive, and there is less use of the 'just in time' delivery method.
I guess what I am saying here is that I think that anybody who is #100 or less will see their car in the next year.
The Lotus line appears to have capacity for about 3000 cars on a single shift. I do not know if this accounts for Vauxhall VX220 and Opel Speedster capacity or not. Apparently one of the reasons the Elise did not come to the U.S. until now is because Lotus was working on those projects instead of bringing the Elise to the U.S. (bear in mind that direct sales of cars is actually only a minority percentage of Lotus revenues).
In all likelihood, the American cars require an extra shift at the Lotus plant. If a second shift doubles capacity and the current non-US production requirements are 2000 cars a year, then there is room for 3000 or more cars for the US market.
Of course these are all assumptions, based primarily on data in Alastair Clements' book 'Elise - Rebirth of the True Lotus.'
I think Lotus can pump out more cars than the actual production estimates but I don't think they can pump out a huge number beyond the production estimates. Obviously their manufacturing process is a lot different than, say, the process for a Mazda Miata - it takes longer, is more labor intensive, and there is less use of the 'just in time' delivery method.
I guess what I am saying here is that I think that anybody who is #100 or less will see their car in the next year.
I asked at the show whether the VX220 would compete with the federal Elise for production resources, and the answer I was given was that there are (will be?) three parallel production lines- one for the VX220, one for the S2 Elise, and one for the federal Elise.
The issue of multiple shifts is more complex than it may appear at first glance- it is not my understanding that Lotus is running more than one shift, or more precisely I have heard that they are "not adding additional shifts". When I asked if they would be accelerating production of the federal Elise to meet demand, the answer was that they are more concerned about long term growth than first year sales, and from a long term perspective it is better to be on the lean side of meeting the demand; it keeps the market hungry rather than saturated. In short, Lotus could certainly ramp up the production dramatically if they wanted to, but it's not at all clear that they want to just yet...
There may also be some subtleties related to the waivers they requested in order to bring the car to the US without fully meeting bumper and headlight requirements- increased volume may undermine their position. It may be interesting to see if the official position on production volume increases after the waivers have been formally granted. (To those new to the issue of the waivers, they are not yet in place, but commonly believed to be little more than a formality at this point)
-Knute
The issue of multiple shifts is more complex than it may appear at first glance- it is not my understanding that Lotus is running more than one shift, or more precisely I have heard that they are "not adding additional shifts". When I asked if they would be accelerating production of the federal Elise to meet demand, the answer was that they are more concerned about long term growth than first year sales, and from a long term perspective it is better to be on the lean side of meeting the demand; it keeps the market hungry rather than saturated. In short, Lotus could certainly ramp up the production dramatically if they wanted to, but it's not at all clear that they want to just yet...
There may also be some subtleties related to the waivers they requested in order to bring the car to the US without fully meeting bumper and headlight requirements- increased volume may undermine their position. It may be interesting to see if the official position on production volume increases after the waivers have been formally granted. (To those new to the issue of the waivers, they are not yet in place, but commonly believed to be little more than a formality at this point)
-Knute
If this is a pool, I'll put a buck on August 27, 2007
What's the poll for? Delivery of #102 at Criswell?
I think April 27, 2005 - for a dollar, of course
If I were a betting man, I would also assume that anything above #150 would not result in delivery of a 2005 model, but rather a 2006 model with 2005 production (but not delivery necessarily) to cease sometime around late-summer 2005.
If the bumper waiver lasts through the 2005 model year only, I would really like to see what I'd be getting if I were above #150. In other words, I'd probably be buying something else
I think April 27, 2005 - for a dollar, of course
If I were a betting man, I would also assume that anything above #150 would not result in delivery of a 2005 model, but rather a 2006 model with 2005 production (but not delivery necessarily) to cease sometime around late-summer 2005.
If the bumper waiver lasts through the 2005 model year only, I would really like to see what I'd be getting if I were above #150. In other words, I'd probably be buying something else
Clyde at the Auto Show told me the waiver was good for 24 months production. They might be able to get another 12 months extension, but that may be iffy. It is hard to imagine that all told there may be 'only' around 5000 Fed Elises total, if that. That works out to about 131 per dealer for all of the two year run if there is equal distribution, with California getting the most since there are 7 authorized dealers there.
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