I know there has been a lot of discussion about the price of an Elise and how they are on the rise. I haven’t seen much posted recently so I thought I would share some of the graphs I had put together. The price increase is more than exponential if you look at the BAT prices of auctioned cars sold (R2 fit of the exponential trend line is not that great). This plot is available on their website but I hand copied every sale into a spreadsheet to include miles and other factors. The plot I posted does not consider anything other than price (SC tend to go for more, special editions, etc.). I would say the prices are approaching a hyperbolic curve. If history is a guide, hyperbolic price increases are never good. Also interesting is the increase in the number of auctioned Elises each year. 2021 has more BAT auctioned sales than any other year and this year is not over yet (people also may not have been using auctions to the same extent 5 years ago). Also included is the average sale price of all the BAT auctioned Elises by year. You can see in 2021 they popped. So, what’s going on here? It has been mentioned that it’s a result of Covid, and/or people are feeling flusher with cash, and/or the expansive monitory policy our government is now engaging, and/or the numbers of these vehicles are dwindling and can never be replenished. (The laws of thermodynamics suggest we all will eventually be driving Elises with rebuilt titles). The interesting thing to note is that the increases were gradual up to about 2020 and then roughly a 40% increase in 2021. That may be a bit high because some rare cars have been sold in 2021 so call it a 30% increase 2020 to 2021. That period does correlate with Covid, but Covid, dare I say, has been tamped down a considerable amount recently and prices continue to rise. The effects of monetary policy are hard to calculate, but printing money means more cash sloshing around in the economy. Couple that with dwindling numbers of Elises and you have more money chasing fewer cars which leads to price increases. Cars are terrible investments, but I think that pertains to daily driven cars and the Elise is more than that. It is rare – when was the last time I saw an Elise on the road – never. To me that means prices will track above the average inflation rate which we know is only going to go up, up, up. Keeping your money in the bank is a safe way to lose money. I’m not saying invest in a Lotus and you will make money when (if) you sell. I’m say there are worse places to put money and most of those places you can’t sit in and drive. So why have I been collecting all this data on the Elise? – because I just bought one. For me an acceptable outcome is to not lose a lot of money (none if possible) if I ever sell and enjoy the driving experience in the meantime. I think breaking even in 10 years on an Elise, in terms of the value of a dollar today versus 10 years from now, is highly likely. Just my thoughts on where this is all going, but I’m no financial guru.