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So this has been fun to play with. I was able to get within 10% of about 40% of the 2005s sold on BaT. In some cases, a car with more miles than the one the week before would go as much as ten grand higher, so things like color and condition and general mania will make it harder to get more accurate. Still, it fits the general shape pretty well.

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The solid dots are sale data, color coded for how closely my model got.

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I still need to play with the constants since Excel is struggling to converge without a lot of manual help. Lots of local minima to fight through. At this rate, prices will double in four years, so obviously extrapolating that far is going to be iffy, but I'm curious how well it will fit over the next few months.
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
So this has been fun to play with. I was able to get within 10% of about 40% of the 2005s sold on BaT. In some cases, a car with more miles than the one the week before would go as much as ten grand higher, so things like color and condition and general mania will make it harder to get more accurate. Still, it fits the general shape pretty well.

View attachment 1297834

The solid dots are sale data, color coded for how closely my model got.

View attachment 1297835

I still need to play with the constants since Excel is struggling to converge without a lot of manual help. Lots of local minima to fight through. At this rate, prices will double in four years, so obviously extrapolating that far is going to be iffy, but I'm curious how well it will fit over the next few months.
@ Cyow5 - that's a pretty good fit. It is difficult considering all the different attributes. As far as doubling in 4 years, probably not. Prices will increase until the marketplace says enough is enough. Where and when that happens - who knows. Thanks for the data.
 

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I 100% agree with the Elise but I don't get the TRX. There are already trucks coming to market in EV form that destroy that thing on power and speed, right? Won't trucks only get faster from here? Is it just about the sound?
Great question. I guess the reasoning doesn’t fit perfectly. Needed a bigger vehicle once I got a second kid, had always wanted a pickup anyway, and timing was now rather than 2022/2023 when those might actually make it to market, and whatever I got, wasn’t going to be able to park it inside. The rub for a lot of folks is going to be when they have to either put their 240v charging outside or try to get a full size pickup in the garage and have any room left for anything else.
I think ina couple years you’ll have to go to a 250 or 2500 to get anything close to that power/displacement in a dinosaur juice truck. I’m also not sure I believe any of the EV truck claims… musk is providing much of the hype and much of what he says is totally made up. Much like with the roadsters, it’ll be hard to overcome that weight difference.
 

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Many good thoughts on the data and modeling here. But nobody has touched on what I think is the most important market change, not coincidentally the one that made me decide I was going to buy an Elise at any price.

Unless we see an order of magnitude revolution in battery technology, odds are good that nobody will ever mass produce and market a 2000 pound sports car again. Ever. ICEs are on their way out, and rightfully so. But EVs are intrinsically heavier. The new Tesla roadster, which looks amazing, is expected to be >4000 pounds. Lotus likely won't get an EV under 3000 pounds.
This has been a thing for nearly a decade now when the last federal Eliges were allowed to be sold. Even sub 3000 lb sport cars for the average Joe have disappeared aside from the fairly modern introduction of the ND Miata and the Alfa Romeo 4C (major kudos to those manufacturers for trying to give us one last hurrah of a light sports car). The 86 twins while a nice attempt tipped the scales far more than I liked, but that's what you get when you gotta share platforms and don't 100% commitment to dedicated sports car platform.

Regardless, it's folly to ignore market pressures on sports car availability right now. C8, 400Z, Emira... All new ICE cars, sure. When are they actually getting delivered to buyers? Might be a while. There's a car supply contraction at play. Let that dust settle and let's see if trends hold steady.
 

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Regardless, it's folly to ignore market pressures on sports car availability right now. C8, 400Z, Emira... All new ICE cars, sure. When are they actually getting delivered to buyers? Might be a while. There's a car supply contraction at play. Let that dust settle and let's see if trends hold steady.
Agree with you. When supply is constrained prices go up. Occam's razor.
 

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2009 Elise, Jeep GC SRT (for the kids’ seats)
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I would be interested to know what the number of owners does to the pricing models. One school of thought is less owners, even with high miles could mean a better cared for car. Obviously this is not always the case. Another could argue that a car with under 10,000 miles and 7 owners, (possibly collectors and barely drove it) would be the better car. Again nothing is for sure.
 

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I was hard into finding an Elise over a year ago, but I could never decide about my age/physical problem, so I hesitated; plus I wanted orange/yellow. Hindsight is 20/20. Coulda - shoulda! But, I didn't - and now probably won't. I've mentioned before about the correlation between this Lotus price problem and the real estate market: Beach houses in Galveston, TX, have doubled in value in the past two years. Really!!! Even with the threat of Global Warming and hurricanes. Can you guess what the taxes and insurance are on a $1M beach house.

There is a stock advisory company, (forgot the name: .....Wave Theory), that has lots of correlation theories between stock prices and social attitudes. It's interesting to spend 30 minutes studying this. You have probably heard of the women's hemlines and stock prices theory. But, back to cars, another current example is the Porsche Boxster. America is going through a humongous social turmoil currently. It would be great fun to read about this in 50 years.
 

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I'm 63 and try to stay in shape, so getting in/out is easier than it is for owners who are heavier or taller than me.(I'm currently at 5'10' and around 160 lbs.). I love driving my Elise, so this helps keep me motivated.

As for pricing, I sold my Elan back in 2005 with the intent of putting those funds into a slightly used Elise. I bought my car in 2007 with 2k miles on it, as I wanted one before a chunk of them were wrecked, abused, or modded. The market for the Elan will eventually shrink, as will the number of folks that know how to work on the things I can't handle. I figured that by the time I can't crawl out of my Elise, there will be plenty of folks a generation younger than me who consider the Elise an aspirational car - something they lusted after in their youth, but couldn't afford at the time.
Right there with you brother, but a little heavier at 210lbs. Turning 60 in a few weeks, bought my 2005 Elise from a friend in 2007 with 4k miles. Tracked several times per year and added a supercharger to be able to keep up with the newer cars. Mine will not be sold, but will end up in the garage of one of my daughters who have each taken it to the track. Which one will get it when I can no longer roll out of the car is still up in the air, but what is for certain is there will never be a price on this one. This was the peak of an era car- I have faster, more powerful cars, but nothing compares to the experience of driving an Elise, and that is why the value will continue to go up. Fewer cars available, and nothing new compares.
 

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I’m a big guy and have no problems getting in and out. It’s not pretty but not a problem. I’m 6’3” 240 lbs. I’m at the point where I might be listing my Elise soon. I’ve had it a couple years and bought it from Shinoo at Inokinetic. 05 touring with 22,000 miles. All stock except Inokinetic’s exhaust. I love this car but will be moving to arizona soon and the car is basically useless there. Not a twisty for miles. I’ll admit the BAT prices are what’s got me thinking of selling as well.
 
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