[wallabyguy]

Although there has only been 2 Lotus models to ever offer an auto box (Elite and Excel), don't be surprised to see a manu-matic or paddle shifter/ SMG appear on the Elise in the future. In order for Lotus to keep sales up in the US after the preorders are done, they will almost definitely have to offer such an option. Toyota would certainly be able to offer a box option to this end to work with the VVTiL engine. It may not happen until 2006 and the introduction of the "next" Elise, but it will happen. The sales possibilities in the US are too great to ignore.

 

[wallabyguy]

Steve,

I hope you are not reffering to me personally. I think that the Elise needs to stay somewhat pure in order to differentiate itself from the competition. We must be realilistic regarding the cars market however. Lets face it, in the US you need some variation of the slushbox in order to attract real buyers. Lotus doesn't need it for the next 2 years (run of the current car) because what isn't sold out already will be soon. However in order to sustain sales, Lotus will have to adapt the car to the markets which it will compete. Note, we are not getting the car they have had in europe since 2000. We are also not getting just a new engine and trans. There are key marketing moves that have been and continue to be made to insure the car will sell ranging from ABS and central locking to carpet and insulation in the soft and hard tops. Don't look fot GPS or ESP on any Lotus for the foreseeable future (short of the rumor of a sedan coming to light). Even the colors of our Elise are being carefully picked. If Lotus sees a way to keep the spirit of the car and company while if not increasing, perhaps mantaining sales with adding options or specifications, be sure they will.

 

[wallabyguy]

My use of "real buyers" was in reference to sustained market interest. There will be a large number of people who will love the idea of owning a Lotus Elise but either don't know how to drive a stick or are unwilling to deal with one in their commute. Right now, as I mentioned before, this is not the case but once the car is available at dealers (say early-mid 2005) these cars are going to be cross shopped with Z4, Boxters, Corvettes and 350Z Roadsters, all of which offer some type if not multiple types of slush boxes. Lotus will need to continually offer something "new" in order to avoid the VW Beetle problem where after an intial strong demand for the car is over (i.e. everyone who wanted one orginally got one), something has to make either new buyers show up or encourage old buyers to trade in and up. The Elise may never get an auto, but then a M250 type car maybe required to keep Lotus from experiencing a "flash in the pan" burst. A serious investment in the product line is going to need to be made in order for Lotus to succeed. this may come in the form of additional models or prehaps just "special editions" like the exige and 340R. Luckily Lotus is working down market at this point which will save it from the problem Volkswagon is having with the Phaeton in Europe. I know Lotus is planning the expansion of their line, I just hope they don't delay the new models too long or the momentum of the Elise launch will be lost.

 

[wallabyguy]

I didn't mention the S200 because I don't know that much about it (esspecially since the revision for 2004). Additionally, you need to be mindful that like the NSX, Honda builds the S2000 not to make money per-se but instead to draw buyers into showrooms and sell them something else. Lotus needs to sell Elise in order to survive (at least as a car manufacturer). Historically sales have dropped for the Elise, even with it's limited quanities. In fact, if not for the VX220/ Speedster, Lotus would have had been in trouble because of access capability. The introduction of the Elise in the US is partially due to the end of production of the VX220 and the decreased demand for the Elise in Europe. I'm not saying that the Elise is anything but a niche car, but as such is even more subject to market demand than a typical car. Variations of the car and the line will be what keeps Lotus alive in the future.

 

[wallabyguy]

Arno,

All of the things you mentioned regarding the slow start of the S2 model are correct. It doesn't however change the fact that the Elise is Lotus Cars (not engineering ) main source of income. Yes Lotus is planning other models, as I stated before, however knowing the way that Proton has handled them in the past, if the Elise was to suddenly tank, you'd see the money pulled. Fortunetly, Proton has committed the funds to the intial engineering studies on both the 260 and new Esprit and both should be shown in show version within the next 2 years or so. This is some insurance that won't happen but in no ways a lock. Lotus has abandon the US market before (1981-83), and would do it again if it found the hassle too much.

Regardless of how they are selling, and they are selling very poorly btw, the VX220 has compensated for the drop in demand for the Elise. The S1 was designed for 700 units per year while still under ownership of Artoli. His expectations for the car and the company were quite different than the current ownership. That car was designed to pull in profit at much lower numbers than the current car, just as you stated.

The MR2 and S2000, both cometition for the Elise, don't sell in the 10's of thousands in the US but actually closer to the 5000 units you mentioned for the Elise. Worldwide those cars sell over 10,000 I'm sure but not here. Speaking to a client who owns a Toyota Dealership, his understanding is that the MR2 Spyder is imported into the US at a rate of 3500-4500 per year. Based on the resale values of the car, I can believe that.

I agree, the M260 will be more of a GT and will likely get some form of slush box. What do you think of Audi's unit that they are using on the TT? It is certainly different from the other mentioned up to now.