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Lotus Valuation - Why are used values holding up?

5.3K views 45 replies 28 participants last post by  ...m...  
#1 ·
I can finally justify buying a Lotus, but I am a little perplexed at how well the values for used Lotuses are holding up. It is not my intention to make any enemies with this post, I'm simply looking for guidance on whether buying used v. new makes sense. Why are the Elise values holding up so well compared to other sports cars?

Currently it seems like '05s with few options under 25-30K miles are selling or at least listing in the low to mid $20k's judging from Ebay and this board. We'll call it $24K. However, the new Purist edition that is rolling out later this year is MSRP ~ $44K and the current Elise starts at ~$48K. So after 5 years of ownership, the average annual depreciation is +/- $4K compared to the Purist. This sounds like a good deal at less than $350/mo of depreciation cost excluding time value of money or anything like that.

Then, I compare this with the BMW M3 convertible lease residuals which isn't a perfect comparable, but in Nov. 2008 if you bought the new '09 the residual on a 5 year lease was 32% of MSRP! (granted, they add back 3% for driving less than 10K mile per year, and as of June 2009 it is still 32% residual for the remaining 09s but you probably get a nice discount for taking one of those.) The Porsche Boxter 60 mo. residual as of last August was 34-37% of residual depending on the model. This compares with ~ 50% implied residual value on a bare bones Elise. (Sources below)

This brings me to my question - what gives? It seems like a clear value play to buy new given my perceived current market value of 2005 Elises.

Thanks in advance for the feedback,
Doug


BMW Auto Lease Rates - November 2008 - bimmerfest - BMW Forums

'08 Porsche Boxster Lease Rates - 8/08 - Financing/Leasing Message Board

Porsche Cayman Auto Lease Rates - January 2009 - Planet Porsche
 
#2 ·
I can finally justify buying a Lotus, but I am a little perplexed at how well the values for used Lotuses are holding up. It is not my intention to make any enemies with this post, I'm simply looking for guidance on whether buying used v. new makes sense. Why are the Elise values holding up so well compared to other sports cars?
unless I'm misreading, I don't think you'll make any enemies telling us our cars values are holding up well. :D (especially in todays economy)

new vs used is always a tricky decision to make, really depends on your income/budget and if/when you wish to sell later on.

Why do the hold their values well compared to other sports cars?
lots of factors.
One is the fact that they're produced in such limited numbers, and even fewer in recent years it seems.

arguably making it an "exotic" (or quasi-exotic) sports car.
and anything exotic will hold it's value better over the years.
 
#3 ·
and anything exotic will hold it's value better over the years.
Unless it's an Audi/Lamborghini. :p

They hold their value pretty well as the cars have limited production numbers, and are quite popular in the market segment they're aimed at. There really isn't anything else of note in the US market like the Elise/Exige at anywhere near its price point.
 
#6 ·
I guess they're holding up well b/c they are such a unique car. Anyone who had one and brought it for the right reasons doesn't wanna get rid of it b/c there's nothing that you can replace it with. Well, there are a couple of cars, but they would be less practical or way out of the Lotus' price range.
 
#7 ·
haha yeah they depreciate WAY too fast for it being a specialty car! (I'm one of the people that bitches about the horrible depreciation :D )

You can't throw a stone without hitting an M3 in any affluent part of the country... seeing a Lotus is a rare event.

They retain their value simply because of the low numbers of them. I wouldn't be surprised if the value of 05's starts to go back up after this recession is over.
 
#8 · (Edited)
Currently it seems like '05s with few options under 25-30K miles are selling or at least listing in the low to mid $20k's judging from Ebay and this board. We'll call it $24K.[/url]
I just purchased an '05 Elise (4,500 miles) a few weeks ago for $30,500. That was actually the "trade-in" price (not to be confused with trade-in value), as I traded in an '08 Toyota FJ Cruiser (which they "gave" me $21,500 for). However, I could have bought the Elise outright for $29,000. I searched ebay, cars.com, autotrader.com, craigslist, the classifieds on this forum, etc. at least a few times every single day for over a month, and I only recall seeing one, maybe two Elises priced below $25K. Unless things have changed drastically in the last 3 or 4 weeks, I think if you look more closely, you'll see the current average asking price is more than $24K (more like $27K-$30K).
 
#9 ·
I guess the second logical question given the implied scarcity premium is what are the lead times like for new orders? If I go to a dealer and say I want a white Elise with no options, is that a 6 mo wait? A year wait? If it's a short wait then the idea that they are scarce makes no sense.

Kabinski, I'm judging $24K because I see ones on the forum with 20Kish miles that say things like $26 and 27 obo, and I'll bet you if I have a 3 month buying window and walk around with cash to visit these cars I could walk away with one for 24 easily. At least that's my perceived market value of a base Elise. A current snapshot from ebay agrees, as there is a 15k mile 2005 sold from a dealer for $27 (and you'd easily pay 10% more buying from a dealer than private party) and a 40K 2006 here that went for 24. But back on topic, does it take months or years to get an Elise made to order?

Lotus : Elise:eBay Motors (item 130308881690 end time Jun-01-09 18:23:43 PDT)
 
#11 ·
I'm envisioning a time in the not-too-far-off future where any purely gasoline powered small sports cars is going to be quite valuable. I'm looking forward to teaching my future kids about what cars used to be like :)

I'm just hoping that gas will still be easy to come by 30 years from now.

sorry to derail.
 
#12 ·
No, that's definitely a good point. I'd written off the Elise as purely an object of lust because it was impractical and decided to get a 4 seater, but then I realized a 4 seater is impractical given there are only 3 or 4 times this year that I used more than 2 seats or hauled anything in my car, and at least 2 of those times were avoidable "sure I'll drive" moments compared with 15 miles to work RT 5x a week. Except for the whole no bumpers bit it's more practical. That said, back to determining scarcity premium and order lead times!
 
#13 ·
Your 35% residual BMW is likely to have 75k miles on it . Your 50% of value resold elise is likely to have 20k miles.... The evolution of luxury gt cars gives them more of a life cycle than a lotus. Ther wont be any evololution in minimalisim of a lotus making it a bit less "obsoleteable". In otherwords the latest and greatest means more in the bmw world than it does in the lotus world...
 
#14 ·
That's a good call on the latest and greatest, I'd been thinking about the "new version" premium. There's a nice little step between the 2007 and 2006 3 series currently. It'll be interesting to see if the Evora rocks the boat at all, or if the Elise and the Evora are too different.

In further news, tying together some datapoints, I'm not so sure what to think about the "scarcity premium" given that there is apparently 2008 and even 2007 "new" dealer inventory still sitting around. If the Elises were truly scarce you'd have to be on a waiting list, right? This was a post from kingpin last month:

http://www.lotustalk.com/forums/f3/2-year-old-brand-new-elise-any-concerns-73332/
 
#15 ·
I said it recently somewhere else but I'll repeat it here. I don't see how one could buy a new elise for 50k when you can buy an 07 exige s for 40 k on this board. The purist edition seems like a reasonable value but what I would care most about on these cars is the proper options. I would want lss (sport) pack) and hardtop bare minimum. I would LOVE to have an lsd but that is a rare option. That is a 50k+ car new. You can buy a similar car here barely used (10k miles or so) for well under 30.
 
#18 ·
I find this somewhat funny because there was an evaluation of all cars in the north american market a couple of years ago as it pertains to residuals and the Elise and Exige were #1 and #2. It was posted on the forum here and there was a huge outcry that it was a bunch of bull. Here we are 2 years later and TA DA, guess what, they were right. Because of the type of car the Elise and Exige are and the segment of the market they occupy, they are better adjusted to the pre-owned market than cars like the M3 or Carrera. Hopefully Lotus will complete their Leasing program soon which will take advantage of this and allow a surge of sales based on low monthly payments that will help fuel future sales growth in the Evora and the Elise Replacement.
 
#19 ·
I'll toss in my guess as to why used values are holding up. The Elise attracts more of a "hands-on" kind of owner, they're willing to do the kind of minor repairs that might be necessary on a used car. If that's the case, a decent used one is about as good as a new one.
 
#20 ·
I really don't think the Lotus holds value well at all. Sure it is still 25k after 4 years...when it originally was 53 and the car only has 9,000 miles on it.


In 03 I bought a 2001 Honda S2000 with 23k miles for $22k. 3 years later, with 68k miles on it I sold the car for $18500. That's holding value well. My Exige S has lost over $23,000 in the last year and a half. :shrug:
 
#22 ·
I suspect one reason the Elise has held its value so well is the relatively low maintenance costs. There are bags of fairly cheap Ferraris on the market, but all of the inexpensive examples are overdue for a very price 30k service. I'll admire Lambos from a distance, and pity their owners for the cost of keeping it operational.

Looking back on it - I paid $25k for my 90 Esprit back in 2000. Today, it would probably bring $18k-20k. Not bad, not bad at all, and better resale value than I would have expected. When I bought that Esprit, my stock market following buddies told me I should invest instead. I figure our investments came out about the same, only I got a fun dividend that they didn't.
 
#24 ·
...i suspect that a used elise without major issues will continue to hover in the mid-twenties for quite a while by simple virtue of supply and demand: it's quite a lot of unobtanium available for the price of a more-pedestrian sport compact...

...used, that makes it a fantastic deal both as a buyer and as a second-generation seller...
 
#30 ·
Here you go... Used Car Value - Lotus Elise 2 Door Coupe

When I started searching for an Elise 2 months ago, I must've priced every available '05/'06 on the market (I'd say about 75 in all). Although NADA only lists retail values for the '05 Elise, these figures are a close representation to what I witnessed during my search (well, maybe not their high retail figure of $39,700, as that's a little far fetched). If you translate these retail figures to private-party values (approx. 85% of retail), you'd come up with something like this... private-party value (poor/fair condition) = $23,142, PPV (good condition) = $29,750, PPV (excellent condition) = $33,745. Again, these numbers are only approximations.
 
#26 ·
the 3-5 year residual may be pretty good, but the 1-2 year residuals were pretty bad at the end of 2006 when i bought mine becuase there were lots on the market, and quite a few people bought them without really realizing what they bought... they just wanted that new car they saw... and then they were put back on the market with really low miles.

Certainly there should be some good deals around, but perhaps part of the reason the residual is staying pretty good as time passes is becuase it's not peoples only car, and those how have had them for 3-4 years may really like the car but just don't NEED it, so they put it on the market... if it sells, then it's gone, but if they don't get what they want... they can afford to wait and keep enjoying it.

Mercedes g500 have pretty terrible residuals i think in part because it's coming from a much higher starting price. Aren't residuals almost always worse with the higher entry cost? Anyway the G500 is equally rare... but even the older trucks (from before MBUSA's release of the truck in 2002) are still keeping over the 20k mark in value for quite some time... so part of it may be that rare and interesting vehicles have a much higher bottom end in value than mundane cars you see every day becuase there is alsways some new boring car to replace it. If you like rare/purpose built/hand built cars, there's always some value there. It seems like regardless of the entry price, they ending price ranges seem pretty similar.
 
#27 ·
The 1-2 year residual market values should always be bad. That new car smell, getting the specs you want and not having the first owner practice 20 track starts and do donuts in a high school parking lot after their ebay auction closes tends to weigh on values.

The scarcity claim would probably be the biggest factor if true, yet I've still found no recent posts on Elise order lead times. Does anyone know the turnaround time for ordering a new Elise?
 
#31 ·
Nada always has the absolute highest numbers out there on most cars. Luckily the car doesn't really show up in any other books last time I checked and banks have to go by nada then. If the economy wasn't where its at I believe the cars would have leveled off around $30k with exceptions to mileages and previous repairs, but there a lot of desperate people out there. I carried $15k in negative equity two years ago on my Elise and the bank went for it because the car still was within the NADA guidlines. I paid more than original msrp.